Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip But the Weather is Forecast to be Colder

Natural gas prices tested lower levels but closed nearly unchanged on Friday. Total drilling rigs in the U.S. rose 6 to 261, 70% lower a year ago, according to a report from Baker Hughes. The weather is expected to be much colder than normal throughout most of the mid-west during the next 2-weeks. There are no tropical cyclones expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-hours according to NOAA. LNG exports declined week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices made a lower low but ended the session only slightly in the red. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.13. resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.28. Medium-term negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving sideways, printing a reading of 50, which is in the middle of the neutral range and points to consolidation.

LNG Exports Decline

The EIA reports that LNG exports decrease week over week. Ten LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 37 Bcf departed the United States between September 17 and September 23, 2020, according to shipping data from the EIA. The EIA also reports that the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.2% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 10.0% from last week.