Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 13-17, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas moved between losses and gains this week in response to long term weather forecasts but ended up in a the middle of its trading range at 3.8626 after tumbling on Thursday on the EIA inventory report.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration said gas stockpiles rose 105 billion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 3, compared with the average analysts’ projection of 108 billion cubic feet added. The increase brings total inventories to 3.205 trillion cubic feet, 10.1% lower than year-ago levels and 10.5% below average.

Still, the data weren’t far off estimates and reflected continued robust gas production and limited demand given mild weather that has failed to drive the need for either gas-fired cooling or heating. It was the 25th consecutive increase in stored inventories, and the stockpile increase was 25% bigger than average.

The steadily increasing stockpiles have eased worries that U.S. supplies wouldn’t be adequate for the 2014-15 winter.

Natural gas for November delivery was down in early trade but jumped 3% from the low after weekly U.S. data showed a smaller increase to stockpiles of the fuel than analysts had expected. The contract then fell back into negative territory and bounced around for the rest of the day.

Analysts and traders said the rally was likely due to traders closing bearish bets against the market after the data missed expectations, rather than a fundamental shifting view on the market based on supply-demand dynamics.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 4.612 on Jul 18, 2011

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

 

Upcoming Major Economic Events for the week of Oct 13-17, 2014