Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas added 90 points to trade at 4.023 as traders remain hopeful that there will another severe winter as weather forecasts turned cooler this week. Friday’s weather forecasts grew cooler, both for the coming days and two weeks out, which might spur some more additional heating demand than expected. The worst of the chill will come over the weekend, with populated parts of the Midwest and Southeast getting as much as 8-degrees-Fahrenheit below normal, according to MDA Weather Services.

That has pushed some to buy, especially traders who bet the price would fall after Thursday’s stockpile update showed a larger-than-expected addition, analysts said. Many of Friday’s buyers were likely short sellers, traders who bet prices would fall, buying back their contracts to close out bets, analysts said.

In March gas reserves reached the lowest level for that month since 2003, nearly a trillion cubic feet below average. Despite higher than average additions of natural gas into storage, levels at the end of October will still be 355 billion cubic feet below the five year average and the lowest level in six years, according to the Energy Information Administration, in contrast to Midwest propane reserves, which bounced back from lows after the record cold winter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 4.612 on Jul 18, 2011

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Events You Should Be Monitoring This Week:

CAD                      Ivey PMI

NZD                      NZIER Business Confidence

JPY                        Monetary Policy Statement

AUD                      Cash Rate

AUD                      RBA Rate Statement

JPY                        BOJ Press Conference

GBP                       Manufacturing Production m/m

CAD                      Building Permits m/m

USD                      FOMC Meeting Minutes

AUD                      Employment Change

AUD                      Unemployment Rate

GBP                       Asset Purchase Facility

GBP                       Official Bank Rate

GBP                       MPC Rate Statement

USD                      Unemployment Claims

EUR                      ECB President Draghi Speaks

CAD                      Employment Change

CAD                      Unemployment Rate

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

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Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

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