Natural gas markets have fallen significantly during the course of the trading week to show people a bit of concern now that the winter storms are starting to abate in the United States.
Take a look at the Natural Gas weekly chart and you will see a big, massive black candle here that suggests we are ready to drop even further. I think the $2.50 level is going to be an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to because it’s an area where we have seen a previous support and resistance barrier, and is possibly in the middle of the overall range.
If we were to break down below the $2.50 level, then it’s likely that we could go down towards the $2 level, which is an area that I think is a major floor in the market. Then, the market breaking down below the $2 level would be a huge red flag.
Really, at this point, I think this is a situation where traders are starting to price in the oversupply of natural gas, and that winter storm that got everybody excited is now starting to fade into the background. Futures traders are trading the March contract and that of course comes into the picture as well. Once we hit March, we generally see a drop in pricing. Not always, it just kind of depends on what’s going on, but all things being equal, typically we see less demand at this time of the year so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
I do think we’re in the midst of trying to carve out a range for the year between $2 and roughly $3.33. So be aware that this big, massive candlestick that although very bearish, probably only drops down to about that $2 level.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.