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Christopher Lewis
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Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week as the $3.00 level has offered a significant amount of resistance. The area between $3.00 and the $3.20 level is a massive resistance barrier, and quite frankly I think as we are at the top of a huge consolidation area, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would roll over from here. If that happens, then it is likely we go looking towards the gap underneath near the $2.70 level. That gap of course would be something that a lot of technical traders will be paying close attention to and aiming for, so with that in mind it makes a lot of sense that we go down to that area.

NATGAS Video 17.05.21

If we break down below that level, then the market is likely to go looking towards the $2.40 level underneath, which is the bottom of the larger consolidation region. I do not necessarily know if we go below there, but at the very least I think a simple range bound play makes the most sense here. After all, the natural gas markets will continue to suffer at the hands of warmer weather in the United States and the European Union, driving down demand.

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At the end of the day, one of the things that people will be looking at is the demand for commodities in general, as we continue to see the reflation trade coming back into play and therefore commodities in general have been getting a bit of a push higher. However, natural gas is so oversupply that is difficult to imagine a scenario in which people will be looking to get overly exposed to this oversupplied commodity.

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