Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – OPEC+, Russia, Weather Signal Bearish Trend

WTI, Brent, and Natural Gas Prices React to Geopolitical Risks, Supply Signals, and Technical Barriers

Crude oil and natural gas markets started the week with cautious optimism, but traders remain divided over short-term direction due to mixed fundamental cues and technical resistance levels. WTI and Brent prices found modest support from a restrained OPEC+ output hike and escalating geopolitical risks, while natural gas continues to struggle with strong production and muted demand.

WTI Crude Oil: Bearish Pressure Despite Geopolitical Support

WTI crude edged higher to $62.26 on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses. The rally followed OPEC+’s modest 137,000 bpd production hike starting in October—well below recent monthly increases. While this suggests cartel restraint, analysts warn much of this supply may already be in the market due to member overproduction.

Technical indicators reflect a fragile bullish case. WTI remains trapped below its 50-day ($64.40) and 200-day ($63.31) moving averages, with price action struggling to hold above the $61.45 support. A break below $61.12 could trigger a deeper sell-off toward $56.09, while bulls need a close above $66.03 to shift momentum.

Brent Crude: Capped by Supply Reentry and Price Resistance

Brent crude rose 0.73% to $65.98, mirroring WTI’s bounce on OPEC+ restraint and U.S. rhetoric about additional sanctions on Russian oil. President Trump’s signaling of “phase two” sanctions, alongside Russia’s largest airstrike since the war began, introduced fresh risk premiums.

Yet, the broader backdrop leans bearish. Saudi Arabia’s price cuts to Asia and OPEC+’s renewed focus on market share over price suggest a pivot toward supply competition. Brent remains below critical resistance levels and could face renewed selling if geopolitical risks fade or inventory builds materialize as expected in winter months.

From a technical perspective, Brent remains capped below its 50-day moving average at $67.80 and the 200-day at $69.85. As long as price holds under both trend indicators, the short-term bias remains bearish, with $65.20 as immediate support and $63.85 below that if selling intensifies.

Natural Gas: Resistance Holds as Production and Weather Drag

U.S. natural gas futures briefly touched $3.198 before reversing near the $3.200–$3.238 resistance band, which continues to act as a ceiling. The market’s failure to break above this zone indicates that bulls remain hesitant without stronger catalysts.

Fundamentals are notably bearish. U.S. dry gas output hit 108.2 Bcf/day, up 5.6% YoY, while domestic demand lags at 74.4 Bcf/day. Weather forecasts project mild temperatures for most of the U.S. through mid-September, reducing late-season cooling demand. Storage levels remain healthy, with inventories 5.6% above the seasonal norm and European storage at 78%.

Market Forecast: Cautious to Bearish Outlook Across the Board

WTI and Brent both exhibit bearish technical setups, with key resistance levels capping upside despite fundamental tailwinds from geopolitical risks. Unless prices break above recent swing highs, traders should remain defensive. For natural gas, the technical rejection at $3.200, coupled with strong supply and weak demand, signals continued downside risk unless bulls recapture $3.238.

Overall, near-term sentiment remains bearish, especially if macro support fades and technical levels break lower.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.