Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Short-Covering Lifts Oil, But OPEC’s Production Looms

Light Crude Oil (WTI) Market Overview

Fundamentals:
WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.54% on Friday, closing at $61.53. This uptick was driven by short-covering as traders prepared for the U.S. Memorial Day weekend, which marks the start of the summer driving season. The geopolitical risk of failed nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran added uncertainty to the market, with traders concerned about potential supply disruptions.

Technicals:
WTI crude closed at $61.53 on May 23, 2025. The 50-day moving average is at $62.8, and the 200-day moving average is at $66.87. WTI is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating the market is under bearish pressure. A potential rally may face resistance at the 50-day moving average, while a breakdown could push prices lower.

Brent Crude Oil Market Overview

Fundamentals:
Brent crude also gained on Friday, closing at $64.78, up 0.54%. This move was supported by short-covering ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day weekend. However, the market faces resistance due to expectations of higher supply from OPEC+, with an expected increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July.

Technicals:
Brent crude closed at $64.78 on May 23, 2025. The 50-day moving average is at $65.9, and the 200-day moving average stands at $70.39. Brent is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which suggests the market remains under bearish pressure. While a move higher could face the 50-day moving average, a further decline might also occur if the market continues to trade below these levels.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Fundamentals:
Natural gas prices surged by 2.49% on Friday, closing at $3.334. This rise was fueled by short-covering after warmer weather forecasts for much of the U.S., which are expected to increase demand for natural gas for electricity generation. Despite a bearish inventory report showing a larger-than-expected build of 120 bcf, the outlook remains relatively positive, with strong demand and rising production.

Technicals:
Natural gas closed at $3.334 on May 23, 2025. The 50-day moving average is at $3.7, and the 200-day moving average is at $3.177. Natural gas is currently trading below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the market faces conflicting signals. A breakout above the 50-day moving average could signal further upside, while a breakdown below the 200-day moving average could indicate further weakness.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.