NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Daily Chart Indicates Plenty of Room to Upside Over .6798

The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher on Friday against the U.S. Dollar in reaction to lower Treasury yields and expectations of increased demand for higher risk assets.

A large decline in long-term Treasury yields due to expectations for less fiscal spending, combined with a rally in equities and other risk assets, has placed the U.S. Dollar under consistent selling pressure that is likely to continue

At 06:00 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6782, up 0.0010 or +0.15%.

“There’s a green light for the resumption of U.S. Dollar selling, reflecting past declines in real interest rates,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

“There’s an argument that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to backstop risk assets. The pandemic is still trending in the wrong direction.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the September 18 main top at .6798 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .6589.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6614 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is .6798 to .6512. The NZD/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .6889 to .6655, putting it in a bullish position. This area is also support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The strong upside momentum indicates that buyers are going to make a run at the September 18 main top at .6798. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level, but overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with no visible resistance until the March 21, 2019 main top at .6939.

Our near-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the NZD/USD holds .6688 to .6655. The first break under .6688 will indicate the buying has stalled. Holding between .6688 and .6655 will mean the outlook is neutral. A move under .6655 will indicate the selling pressure is increasing.