NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Minor Pivot at .6302 Controlling Price Action

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6296, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at .6302.
James Hyerczyk
New Zealand Dollars

The New Zealand Dollar posted a second consecutive inside move on Friday while posting a slight gain for the session. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. After surprising traders with a half-percent rate cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged earlier in the week

On Friday, the NZD/USD settled at .6296, up 0.0003 or +0.04%.

The indecision from traders on Thursday and Friday was likely fueled by the two trains of thought currently controlling the price action. Supporting the NZD/USD was Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, who said a rate cut in November “wasn’t a dead certainty”. Capping the Kiwi were a slew of bank analysts who are forecasting a 25-basis point cut in November that would take the OCR to 0.75 percent.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6255 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .6451.

The minor trend is also down. It will change to up on a trade through .6349. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6255 to .6349. Its 50% level or pivot is .6302. This level controlled the price action most of last week.

The short-term range is .6451 to .6255. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .6353 to .6376 will become the next upside target zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6296, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at .6302.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6302 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a test of .6255. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the August 24, 2015 main bottom at .6207.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6302 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the minor top at .6349, followed by the short-term 50% level at .6353.

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.