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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 19, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 18, 2015, 03:58 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD  gained 6 points as the markets were in a positive mood after currency problems in China subsided. The kiwi is

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 19, 2015 – Forecast

nzdusd tuesday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD  gained 6 points as the markets were in a positive mood after currency problems in China subsided. The kiwi is trading at 0.6598.  New Zealand’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July as a downturn in the dairy sector started to weigh on industrial production, despite the support a weaker kiwi dollar offers exporters.

The BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index fell to 53.5 last month from 55.1 in June, and was down from 54.1 a year earlier, where a reading of 50 separates expansion from contraction.

Trends in the sub-sectors of the index showed growth in inventories of finished stock while new orders and employment indices slipped sharply.

Manufacturers told the survey the devaluation in the New Zealand dollar had been a boon as it increased the value of sales into foreign markets, though a slump in global dairy prices and subsequent belt-tightening facing farmers was a negative. The manufacturing sector’s activity has been growing for 34 consecutive months.

RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler’s speech this week warned traders against expecting big further cuts to the official cash rate while reiterating the central bank remains in easing mode.

It sees the dollar as still being over-valued because of weak dairy prices and a deteriorating external trade position. So far this year, the kiwi has shed about 15 per cent of its value.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun)

103.1B

23.0B

93.0B

 

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

 

nzdusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

-0.847M

 

 

  NZD

 

PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2)

 

 

-1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Jul)

 

5.5%

9.5%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Jul)

 

-57B

-69B

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

1.8%

1.8%

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

  RUB

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

5.5%

5.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

-1.682M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

 

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