NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 4, 2015, 03:54 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped a bit farther giving up 3 points to 0.6561 as the greenback got a bounce in Asian trading. New Zealand's

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped a bit farther giving up 3 points to 0.6561 as the greenback got a bounce in Asian trading. New Zealand’s dollar held a four-day decline before an auction for whole milk powder.

Australia’s Reserve Bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold today, according to 25 out of 28 economists in a Bloomberg poll. While RBA governor Glenn Stevens is expected to keep the rate at 2 percent, traders will be closely watching the tone of his statement for signs of potential weakness ahead.

New Zealand commodity prices fell at their fastest pace on record in July, notching up a fourth straight month of declines to the lowest level in almost six years, led by dairy.

The ANZ Commodity Price Index for July fell 11.2 percent to the lowest level since October 2009, and is 27 percent below year earlier levels. Thirteen of the 17 main commodities declined.

The drop was led by a slump in dairy prices, which are down 23 percent from June to the lowest level in more than 11 years. Whole milk powder prices fell 35 percent, while skim milk powder declined 11 percent and casein dropped 9.8 percent. Cheese and butter prices also declined. Excess global supply and lackluster demand is pushing down prices for dairy products, the country’s largest export commodity, reducing farm incomes and weighing on economic growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%
AUD	Trade Balance (Jun)	-2.933B	-3.100B	-2.677B
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
AUD	RBA Rate Statement

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	Services PMI (Jul)		58.0	58.5
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change		215K	237K
USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		56.2	56.0