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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped this morning trading at 0.8442 off by 8pts on global sentiment shifts. Markets are flat as they wait for

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 19, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped this morning trading at 0.8442 off by 8pts on global sentiment shifts. Markets are flat as they wait for US policymakers to reach a deal and avert the so-called fiscal cliff from coming into effect on Jan. 1. The House of Representatives will meet with Speaker John Boehner expected to put a deal to Congress as his negotiations with President Barack Obama drag on. Most of the market is expecting a positive outcome to be good for the kiwi on the basis its good for risk sentiment. It will be interest if the announcement is made on those days between Christmas and New Year when markets are pretty thin – we could be in for a fairly volatile finish to the year.

New Zealand’s Treasury also trimmed its forecast economic growth over the coming years as the strength of the currency and weak state of global markets weighs on the local economy. The government department sees growth peaking at 2.9 percent in 2013/14, before slowing to 2.4 percent by the 2017 fiscal year.

Tuesday’s balance of payments is expected to show New Zealand’s current account deficit narrowed to 4.8 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter, and GDP figures on Thursday will likely show the economy grew 0.4 percent in the same period.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

China House Prices (MoM) 

-0.70%

 

 

 

-1.10% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese FDI 

-3.60%

 

 

 

-3.45% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 19

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.870M

0.894M

 

21:45

NZD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

0.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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