NZD/USD Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD tumbled 36 points to 0.6458 trading near its lowest level in recent memory after inflation expectations remained at 1.9%.  Investors are seeking the safety of the greenback and the yen and eschewing commodity-linked currencies such as the kiwi following Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris. The local currency already faced downward pressure amid expectations the Reserve Bank will probably cut interest rates further next month, in contrast with the Federal Reserve in the US, which is expected to hike rates.

Investors are seeking the safety of the greenback and the yen and eschewing commodity-linked currencies such as the kiwi following Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris. The local currency already faced downward pressure amid expectations the Reserve Bank will probably cut interest rates further next month, in contrast with the Federal Reserve in the US which is expected to hike rates.

Longer term inflation expectations weakened marginally in the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey of expectations, with annual consumers price inflation expected to be 1.85 percent in two years’ time, compared with an …

Longer term inflation expectations weakened marginally in the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey of expectations, with annual consumers price inflation expected to be 1.85 percent in two years’ time, compared with an expectation of 1.94 percent for the same measure in the September survey.

For the year to December 2016, inflation expectations rose slightly to 1.51 percent, from an expected 1.46 percent three months earlier.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus