NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD edged down on Friday to trade at 0.8231 as risk aversion returned to the markets and is headed for a 1.9 percent weekly decline, after US Republicans called off a vote on a plan to avert the fiscal cliff of US$600 billion tax increases and spending cuts, raising the risk of recession next year.

US Republican leaders called off a vote in Congress on a measure put up by Speaker John Boehner to break the deadlock on negotiations with the White House, pushing out any deal until after Christmas. As US legislators drag their heels on cutting a deal, markets grow more pessimistic after similar delays over lifting the nation’s debt ceiling led to a credit rating downgrade last year. The kiwi took a hit yesterday after government figures showed the economy grew at a 0.2 percent quarterly pace in the September quarter, half what economists were picking.

The kiwi dollar has been one of the top performing currencies this year, having gained 6.7 percent this year, and Kelleher said traders will be using the looming year-end to cash out on those gains.

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy