NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD edged down on Friday to trade at 0.8231 as risk aversion returned to the markets and is headed for a 1.9 percent weekly decline, after US Republicans called off a vote on a plan to avert the fiscal cliff of US$600 billion tax increases and spending cuts, raising the risk of recession next year.

US Republican leaders called off a vote in Congress on a measure put up by Speaker John Boehner to break the deadlock on negotiations with the White House, pushing out any deal until after Christmas. As US legislators drag their heels on cutting a deal, markets grow more pessimistic after similar delays over lifting the nation’s debt ceiling led to a credit rating downgrade last year. The kiwi took a hit yesterday after government figures showed the economy grew at a 0.2 percent quarterly pace in the September quarter, half what economists were picking.

The kiwi dollar has been one of the top performing currencies this year, having gained 6.7 percent this year, and Kelleher said traders will be using the looming year-end to cash out on those gains.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 21, 2012	0.8231	0.8340	0.8340	0.8224	-1.31%
Dec 20, 2012	0.8340	0.8350	0.8367	0.8319	-0.12%
Dec 19, 2012	0.8350	0.8402	0.8406	0.8331	-0.62%
Dec 18, 2012	0.8402	0.8444	0.8452	0.8396	-0.50%
Dec 17, 2012	0.8444	0.8456	0.8468	0.8426	-0.14%

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-8.1	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	1.3B	25.0B	3.2B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-107.5B	-103.4B	-118.1B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.42B	-4.40B	-1.80B
	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.87T	-0.81T	-0.62T
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.899M	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.861M	0.873M	0.888M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Dec. 20	04:00	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	357K	344K
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	3.1%	2.8%	2.7%
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3225K	3199K	3213K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.04M	4.87M	4.76M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	8.1	-3.0	-10.7
Dec. 21	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	-0.2%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	72.9	74.7	74.5

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 27	23:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.5%
	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	1.6%
	23:50	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.1%	-1.2%