Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Tariff Risks, Inventory Draws, and Turning Points

WTI Oil (CL) prices rebounded on Thursday after a five-day losing streak. The recovery came after data showed a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, signalling steady domestic demand. Moreover, the refinery utilisation also increased in the Gulf Coast and West Coast, reinforcing the outlook for stronger consumption in the near term.

However, the rally was capped by growing macroeconomic uncertainty. US President Donald Trump announced a fresh 25% tariff on Indian goods due to their Russian oil imports, with more possible tariffs on China. These trade moves raised concerns over weakened global demand and disrupted energy trade flows, which weighed on investor sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating within a range near the long-term support at the $66 area. A breakout from this consolidation zone could drive prices in either direction. Until then, prices remain in the consolidation phase and are lean bearish. A break above $77 could push WTI crude oil toward $84, while a break below $64 could send it toward the $60 and $55 areas.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Bearish Bias

These consolidation zones are marked by the orange area on the 4-hour chart, where prices have formed a double top pattern and consolidated above the $64 level. A break below $64 would be bearish and could take WTI crude oil toward $60 as the next support level. The RSI indicates substantial consolidation and does not signal any clear trend in the near term.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Support of $3

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that the price is consolidating above the $3 level. The drop from the $3.60 area has found strong support at $3, and the price is rebounding from this zone. The long-term support range remains between $2.70 and $3, and a break below $2.70 would be negative for natural gas. However, as long as the price stays above $3, the overall trend remains bullish.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Price Action

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is consolidating between the $2.90 and $4.70 levels. A rebound from the $3 area indicates a positive direction. As long as the price remains above $2.90, the overall trend stays within the consolidation range. A breakout above or below this range will determine the next move in natural gas prices.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it failed to break above 100.50 and continues to trade lower. The sharp drop from 100.50 suggests that the next move for the index could be to the downside. A break below the 96 level would be bearish and could open the door for a strong decline toward the 90 area.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index also shows negative price action, as the index failed to break above the 100.50 area. The sharp drop from 100.50 indicates that the next direction for the USD is likely negative. However, a break below the 96 level will confirm the bearish trend.