Oil Fundamental Forecast – January 20, 2016

Barry Norman

Oil Fundamental Forecast – January 20, 2016
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 45 points as traders bought up the cheap commodity taking advantage of low prices and the hopes that OPEC members will cut production now that Iran has returned to the marketplace combating US exports. Brent Oil added $1.08 to 29.64. Crude oil prices continued to be hurt by bearish sentiments across the globe as markets remain nervous as to how low oil prices can go. Besides, the supply side remains intact further exerting downside pressure on oil prices.

Low oil prices, weak investment demand and low physical demand are push factors for gold prices to trade lower while bargain hunting will provide a push for gold prices in the near term.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information and Administration) had reported that the global crude oil production will rise to 95.9 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2016 and 96.7 MMbpd in 2017. The global crude oil production was at 95.7 MMbpd of crude oil in 2015. The global oil consumption is expected to average 95.2 MMbpd in 2016 and 96.6 MMbpd in 2017.

Meanwhile, the JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs suggested that crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in 2016. Royal Bank of Scotland suggests that crude oil prices could test $16 per barrel, while Standard Chartered suggests that oil prices could hit $10 per barrel in the worst-case scenario.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

NZIER Business Confidence (Q4)

15%

 

-14%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec)

10.0%

10.2%

10.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q4)

6.8%

6.8%

6.9%

 

 

  CNY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)

5.9%

6.0%

6.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Dec)

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Dec)

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

PPI Input (MoM) (Dec)

-0.8%

-1.7%

-1.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan)

59.7

54.0

55.0

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

10.2

8.2

16.1

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)

0.9%

0.9%

0.9%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Dec)

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment

22.7

27.9

33.9

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov)

 

12.10B

22.08B

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday January 20, 2016

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov)

 

 

-16.6B

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q4)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q4)

 

-0.2%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

 

-0.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) (Dec)

 

-0.4%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)

 

2.1%

2.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Dec)

 

2.5K

3.9K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

5.2%

5.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (Dec)

 

1.200M

1.282M

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)

 

2.1%

2.0%

 

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

 

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Housing Starts (Dec)

 

1.200M

1.173M

 

 

  CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

-1.1%

 

 

  CAD

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

-0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  CAD

 

BoC Gov Poloz Speaks  

 

       

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Jan 20 11:03 Sweden SEK 4bn 1% Nov 2026 Bond

Jan 20 11:30 UK GBP 4bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Jan 21 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Jan 21 10:50 France Holds bond auction

Jan 21 19:00 US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Jan 21 17:20 Italy Details of CTZ/linker auction on Jan 28

Jan 21 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on 28 Jan

Jan 21 n/a US Details of 2-yr note auction on Jan 26

Jan 25 11:30 Germany EUR 1.5bn Jan 2017 Bubill

Jan 25 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jan 27

Jan 25 17:20 Italy Details of BTP/CCTeus on 28 Jan

Jan 26 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ/linker bond auction

Jan 26 n/a US Holds 2-year note auction

Jan 27 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jan 27 11:30 Germany EUR 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Jan 27 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on 03 Feb

Jan 27 n/a US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Jan 27 n/a US Holds 5-year note auction

Jan 28 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Jan 28 11:10 Italy Holds BTP/CCTeus auction

Jan 28 n/a US Holds 7-year note auction

Feb 02 n/a UK Details of Gilt auctions on Feb 09 & 11

 

 

 

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All

Top Promotions

Top Brokers