Oil News: Bearish Oil Outlook Builds After 50-Day Moving Average Rejection

Crude Oil Slips as OPEC+ Pause and Strong Dollar Weigh on Sentiment

Light crude oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, pressured by a confluence of bearish fundamentals and technical resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently pegged at $61.35.

After failing to break above this level on Monday, early trading saw crude retreat toward the key short-term retracement zone between $59.27 and $58.49 — a range that could draw value buyers but also risks deeper selling pressure if broken decisively.

At 11:36 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.17, down $0.88 or -1.44%.

OPEC+ Output Strategy and Fading Sanctions Impact Cap Bullish Momentum

Oil prices fell more than 1% following OPEC+’s latest decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of next year, disappointing bulls hoping for further supply cuts. While the cartel approved a modest supply bump for December, the broader pause sent mixed signals to the market, especially given ongoing concerns about demand softness.

The fading impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy firms Lukoil and Rosneft added to the bearish sentiment. According to SEB Research, the market reaction to the sanctions was likely front-loaded and will diminish once secondary enforcement measures come into effect later this month, reducing their influence on global supply dynamics.

Weak Manufacturing Data Raises Fresh Demand Concerns

Economic data continues to flash red for oil demand. Japan’s manufacturing PMI contracted at its fastest pace in over a year and a half in October, driven by softness in automotive and semiconductor-related orders. Meanwhile, U.S. factory activity also disappointed, with the ISM manufacturing index undershooting expectations.

John Evans of PVM Oil Associates noted that the wave of weak PMIs from Asia to the U.S. raises red flags for future consumption trends. He added that ongoing trade policy uncertainties are contributing to a more cautious outlook from market participants.

U.S. Dollar Strength Applies Additional Pressure

Crude also faced headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar, which climbed near a three-month high as traders dialed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, curbing global demand.

The currency move has further reinforced bearish sentiment, with analysts noting that dollar strength has historically served as a drag on energy prices, particularly when macroeconomic growth signals are deteriorating.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook Prevails

With futures rejecting the 50-day moving average and sellers pressing toward the $59.27–$58.49 retracement zone, the technical bias remains to the downside.

Fundamentally, the absence of a stronger OPEC+ supply response, ongoing macroeconomic weakness, and dollar strength support a bearish short-term oil prices forecast.

Traders are now watching for signs of buying interest near key support — failure to hold $58.49 could expose crude to a deeper pullback toward the $55.96–$55.27 range.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.