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Oil News: Bullish Breakout in Crude Futures as Trade Talks Lift Market Sentiment

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: May 9, 2025, 11:11 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Crude oil futures break above $60 resistance, setting sights on $63.06 and the 50-day moving average at $64.10.
  • Easing US-China trade tensions lift crude prices by over 1%, with potential to add $2–$3 more per barrel.
  • Technical breakout and supportive fundamentals align to build a bullish crude oil outlook in the near term.
Crude Oil News

Crude Oil Edges Higher as Trade Sentiment Lifts Market Confidence

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures moved higher on Friday, breaking above key technical resistance levels at $59.68 and $60.09, with prices also surpassing a minor top at $60.26. The bullish breakout now puts the spotlight on $63.06 as the next price target, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.10. With previous resistance now acting as near-term support, the $59.68–$60.09 zone is a critical floor for bullish momentum.

At 11:06 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.15, up $1.24 or +2.07%.

US-China Trade Optimism Supports Oil Prices Forecast

Oil markets are pricing in relief as trade tensions between the United States and China—two of the world’s largest oil consumers—appear to be easing. Crude benchmarks rose over 1% Friday, with Brent futures gaining as much as 3% on Thursday, driven by optimism around upcoming talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland on May 10. Market analysts suggest a formal announcement of trade negotiations and a temporary tariff rollback could lift crude prices by $2 to $3 per barrel.

Chinese Import Resilience Provides Fundamental Backing

China’s April trade data added a layer of support, as exports outpaced expectations and the decline in imports narrowed. While crude imports dipped from March levels, they remained 7.5% higher year-on-year—underpinned by state refiners replenishing stocks during plant maintenance. The data signals ongoing demand resilience, which could stabilize near-term price expectations as global demand concerns persist.

OPEC+ Output Outlook Remains Mixed

The supply side, however, remains a potential cap on gains. OPEC+ continues to signal plans for increased production. Yet according to a Reuters survey, output actually declined in April due to losses in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq, offsetting scheduled increases elsewhere. This mixed picture from OPEC+ could help limit downside pressure in the short term, particularly if demand-side confidence continues to build.

Bullish Outlook as Technicals and Sentiment Align

With prices now above key technical levels and geopolitical sentiment turning more supportive, the near-term outlook for crude oil is bullish. Momentum could accelerate if the upcoming US-China meeting results in a de-escalation of trade tensions. Barring a surprise from OPEC+ supply increases, traders may target a push toward $63 and beyond in the sessions ahead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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