Oil News: Crude Futures Slide as 50-Day Moving Average Caps Rally

Crude Oil Slips as OPEC+ Pause Fails to Lift Sentiment

Light crude oil futures are softening Monday, giving up early gains after buyers were rejected at the 50-day moving average resistance at $61.42. The failure to break this key technical level has shifted the intraday tone bearish, with traders now eyeing minor support at $60.57 and more substantial downside risk toward the main bottom at $59.64. Deeper support lies within the retracement zone from $59.27 to $58.49.

On the upside, bulls would need a clean move through $61.42 to retest resistance at the 200-day moving average at $61.91 and the swing high at $62.59.

At 11:54 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.63, down $0.35 or -0.57%.

OPEC+ Output Decision Overshadowed by Demand Concerns

Oil prices remained largely unchanged despite OPEC+ announcing plans to pause output increases in early 2025. The coalition confirmed a modest 137,000 bpd hike for December but signaled a halt to further additions in Q1.

This decision underscores concern about oversupply heading into the new year, especially as prices fell over 2% in October, marking the third straight monthly decline and touching five-month lows on October 20.

ING’s Warren Patterson noted that the move reflects growing acknowledgment of a significant surplus in early 2025. However, he warned that uncertainty remains over the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil flows, which could skew the supply balance.

Geopolitical Risks Countered by Surging U.S. Supply

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions—including a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse oil port over the weekend—oil markets are showing limited bullish response. The attack reportedly damaged a ship and caused a fire, adding to supply-side instability from the region.

However, rising U.S. production continues to offset geopolitical risk. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude output hit a record 13.8 million bpd in August, reinforcing a well-supplied market narrative.

Weak Asian Demand Adds to Bearish Pressure

Demand-side sentiment also remains subdued, particularly in Asia, the largest oil-consuming region globally. Fresh business surveys on Monday showed that manufacturing activity stayed weak across major Asian economies in October. Sluggish factory output from China and other regional hubs is compounding fears of demand stagnation just as supply risks rise.

Outlook: Bearish Bias as Supply Surplus Outweighs Geopolitics

The short-term outlook for oil remains bearish. Technical resistance at the 50-day moving average has capped rallies, while fundamental pressures from robust U.S. output and weak Asian demand outweigh the bullish potential of OPEC+ restraint and Russian supply disruptions. Until demand signals improve or a deeper supply shock emerges, crude oil prices are likely to remain under pressure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.