Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Break 50-Day MA as Supply Fears Build

Light Crude Breaks Above 50-Day — Can It Hold?

Light crude oil futures closed Friday at $60.08, punching through the 50-day moving average at $59.67 for the first time in nearly a month. That’s the line in the sand now. Buyers stepped in on Fed rate-cut buzz and supply worries out of Russia and Venezuela — enough to push WTI to a two-week high and notch a second straight weekly gain.

The question: is this a breakout or a head-fake?

Fed Pivot Fuels the Bid

Traders are pricing in an 87% chance the Fed cuts 25 basis points next week. Lower rates mean cheaper money, and cheaper money tends to juice growth — or at least the idea of it. That’s enough to bring energy buyers back to the table, especially with U.S. consumer spending softening and the labor market looking shaky. The data’s mixed, but the Fed’s leaning dovish, and that’s what matters for now.

Meanwhile, Trump’s meeting with Mexico and Canada on trade. Any thaw in tensions could lift demand expectations further — though we’ve been down this road before.

Supply Risk Keeps a Floor Under Prices

The bulls have help from geopolitics. Peace talks in Ukraine went nowhere, and the G7 is reportedly mulling a full maritime ban on Russian oil to replace the current price cap. If that happens, it tightens the screws on Moscow and could pull barrels off the market — even as Putin’s in India promising “uninterrupted fuel supplies.” Indian refiners are already loading up on discounted Russian crude for January.

Then there’s Venezuela. Trump’s threatening military action against drug traffickers, and Rystad estimates that could put 1.1 million barrels a day at risk. Most of that flows to China, but any disruption adds to the supply anxiety.

The other side? OPEC production’s holding steady, which keeps a cap on how far this rally can run.

What Happens Next

The 50-day moving average at $59.67 is the pivot. Hold it, and the next target is the 200-day at $60.98 — close enough that buyers could get there early next week if momentum holds. Lose it, and we’re back to testing the $59.23–$58.44 zone, where dip-buyers showed up before.

Right now, the setup favors the bulls. Rate cuts are coming, supply’s under pressure, and the technical picture just flipped positive. But this isn’t a breakout yet — it’s a test. Trader reaction to $59.67 early next week will tell you everything you need to know.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.