Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Fade After Early Rally in Thin Trade as OPEC Looms

WTI Slips as Supply Builds — Traders Weigh Oil Prices Forecast

Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $58.55 on Friday, a small dip that still closed out a solid week — but it wasn’t enough to break the broader downtrend. November marked a fourth straight monthly loss, and traders can feel the drag. Demand is soft, supply is heavy, and the market keeps fading every bounce.

Supply Keeps Pressuring the Tape as Oil Prices Projections Slide

The supply story is still the problem. U.S. inventories jumped by 2.8 million barrels last week, far above expectations, as imports surged. Add in steady non-OPEC+ growth — roughly 1.4 million barrels per day heading into 2025 — and total supply pushing toward 105.5 million barrels per day, and buyers don’t have much room to push back.

Demand isn’t helping. Growth in Q3 barely cleared 0.8 million barrels per day year-on-year, and traders say consumption just isn’t behaving like a market that wants higher prices. Even with WTI logging a small weekly gain, real money hasn’t shown conviction.

OPEC+ Nudges Output Higher, but Traders Aren’t Buying the Story

OPEC+ added another 137,000 barrels per day this month — the same modest increase as October — but it lands at a tricky moment. The group is expected to pause further additions in early 2026, yet that doesn’t solve today’s imbalance. Most traders see the bloc as reactive rather than steering the market, especially with non-OPEC supply doing the heavy lifting.

A Reuters poll now pegs the 2026 WTI average at $59, down from last month’s estimate. Not a collapse — just a market that keeps slipping lower as expectations reset.

Geopolitical Rumors Whip Prices, but Follow-Through Remains Thin

The Russia-Ukraine peace chatter knocked crude earlier in the week before talks stalled, giving prices a quick bounce. But the bigger surprise came late Friday: headlines that President Trump and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro discussed a potential meeting. That’s the kind of story that can bleed risk premium out of the barrel fast, and sellers leaned on it into the settlement. Bottom line: geopolitical rallies are fading faster — traders aren’t sticking around to chase them.

Crude Oil News Today: Market Wants a Reason to Rally — It Doesn’t Have One Yet

The forward picture still leans heavy. The EIA expects inventories to rise through 2026 and sees Brent averaging just $54 in Q1. Goldman is even more bearish, arguing the market won’t rebalance until 2027 as one last supply wave works through.

The one bright spot: rate-cut expectations. Markets now price an 87% chance of a December Fed cut, and that could help demand stabilize. But for now, buyers are selective, and sellers still have the easier trade.

Forecast: Bearish. Supply is too strong, demand too soft, and geopolitical support too unreliable for a sustained rebound.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.