Oil News: Crude Oil Holds Steady as Iran Sanctions, OPEC Outlook Drive Uncertainty

Oil Prices Hold Firm as Trade Tensions Ease, Eyes Turn to OPEC+

Crude futures held steady early Tuesday, with WTI last trading near $61.65, down 0.20%, and Brent showing similar subdued movement. Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting later this week. Despite relief from trade war tensions, market upside is being capped by uncertainty over the group’s upcoming output decision.

UBS analysts noted that easing trade tensions are providing some support, but gains remain limited until clarity emerges from the OPEC+ meeting set for May 28. President Trump’s extension of EU trade talks to July 9 helped ease fears of imminent demand destruction, providing modest tailwinds for crude.

OPEC+ Set to Finalize July Output — Traders Brace for Supply Clues

All eyes are on OPEC+ as the group prepares to finalize production quotas for July. Sources indicate that a baseline increase of 411,000 barrels per day is on the table, although this has yet to be confirmed. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated Monday that discussions on raising output have not yet occurred, signaling potential pushback from some members.

Adding to the uncertainty, OPEC+ will hold its ministerial meeting online Tuesday, while the subgroup of eight members implementing voluntary cuts is now expected to meet a day earlier than scheduled, on May 31. Traders are watching closely to see if this subgroup softens its stance on output restraint, which could flood the market with additional barrels.

Iran Sanctions Risk Keeps Bullish Undercurrent Alive

In the background, geopolitical risks remain supportive for oil. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested Monday that Iran could withstand a collapse in nuclear talks with the U.S., implying that sanctions—and thus limited Iranian exports—will likely persist. Continued restrictions on Iranian crude supply could offer a floor to prices amid broader uncertainty.

WTI Constrained Below Key Moving Averages Ahead of Breakout Catalyst

WTI futures remain rangebound, with resistance at $63.43–$64.40 and support near $59.51. The 50-day moving average at $62.70 and the 200-day at $66.83 continue to cap rallies. Price action is consolidating below resistance, suggesting a breakout will depend heavily on OPEC+ clarity.

Traders Watch for OPEC+ Signal — Neutral Bias Until Decision Lands

Traders are focused squarely on OPEC+ headlines, with direction hinging on whether the group signals more aggressive production increases or maintains current restraint. While geopolitical support and trade relief provide some near-term stability, the lack of technical momentum points to a neutral-to-bearish bias unless OPEC+ surprises with a conservative output stance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.