Oil News: Crude Rises as Traders Shrug Off Modest OPEC+ Hike, Focus on Russia Sanctions

Oil Prices Steady After Modest OPEC+ Output Hike and Rising Russia Risks

Light crude oil futures moved higher on Monday but remained trapped within Friday’s range, signaling investor indecision and potential market volatility. Traders are assessing the impact of a modest OPEC+ output increase and renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly the prospect of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude.

At 10:33 GMT, Light Crude Oil FuturesLight Crude Oil Futures are trading $63.12, up $1.25 or +2.02%.

OPEC+ Output Hike Falls Short of Expectations

Oil prices regained more than $1 on Monday, recovering part of last week’s decline after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by just 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. This increase is significantly lower than previous monthly hikes—555,000 bpd in August and September, and 411,000 bpd in June and July—signaling restraint from the cartel despite forecasts of a winter supply surplus.

Analysts viewed the decision as underwhelming, suggesting that some of the additional output is already in the market due to member overproduction. “The market had run ahead of itself in regards to this OPEC+ increase,” said Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, calling Monday’s rally a “sell the rumour, buy the fact” reaction.

Sanctions Threat on Russian Oil Lends Support

Oil prices also drew support from concerns over the possibility of new sanctions on Russian crude. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated over the weekend that the administration is prepared to move to a second phase of sanctions targeting Russia or its oil buyers. Tensions escalated further after Russia launched its largest airstrike on Ukraine since the war began, increasing geopolitical risk premiums in crude markets.

Energy trader Gunvor warned that fresh sanctions could disrupt crude flows, potentially tightening global supply at a time when inventories are expected to build.

Technical Levels Signal Potential Downside Risk

From a technical perspective, the trend remains fragile. Light crude is testing Friday’s low at $61.45, with a break below $61.12 potentially triggering a sell-off toward $56.09—a level not seen since May 30. Resistance stands at the 200-day moving average of $63.31, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.40.

The swing chart shows continued weakness with lower highs at $69.69 and $66.03. A decisive break of $61.12 would confirm the bearish trend.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Bias Holds Unless Key Resistance Is Cleared

Despite Monday’s bounce, the broader oil price projection remains bearish unless the $61.12 support level holds and bulls manage to reclaim the key moving averages. A confirmed trend reversal on the swing chart would only occur with a rally through the $66.03 swing top.

While the modest OPEC+ output increase and rising geopolitical risks provide short-term support, technical indicators continue to lean bearish. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending lower, and the current pattern of lower highs reinforces the downside bias.

Unless prices can break above key resistance levels, traders should remain cautious. A sustained move below $61.12 could open the door to further downside, with $56.09 as the next major support target.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.