Oil News: Futures Surge on Iran Supply Fears—Analysis Points to $69.80 Target

Crude Oil Breaks Through Key Resistance as Bulls Take Control

Crude oil futures are extending gains for a third session on Thursday, with traders challenging the September 26 main top at $64.75 early in the session. With the distance between former tops expanding, the daily chart shows there is plenty of room to the upside. Given the current upside momentum, a clean breakout over $64.75 could easily target the July 30 main top at $66.49. This level is another potential trigger point, with the June 23 main top at $69.80 a strong possibility.

At 13:04 GMT, March WTI crude oil futures are trading $64.72, up $1.51 or +2.39%.

Moving Averages Signal Solid Foundation for Extended Rally

Technically, this move is being fueled by breakouts above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, making both support at $58.61 and $60.57, respectively. Furthermore, with the market spending so much time under these moving averages, a strong base has been built, giving the market solid support for an intermediate and long-term rally.

Real Buying Power or Just Another Short-Covering Spike?

But is this the start of a long-term rally, given the well-supplied market, or is this another short-covering spike fueled by geopolitical events? In my opinion, this rally has real buyers. The 1-2-3 support base between $54.84 and $58.62 is a sign of real buying, as is the similar formation between $58.53 and $62.20 earlier in the month.

Wide Open Spaces: Traders Eye Room to Run

And for those who question the size of this week’s rally, just look at the space between resistance points. Traders have already bought the dips; now they are taking the offers because the resistance levels are offering wide opportunities. The first space was $62.20 to $64.75. This was taken today. The next one is $64.75 to $66.49, followed by the huge gap from $66.49 to $69.80.

The heavy lifting has already been completed, with buyers chewing through swing tops from $58.62 to $61.63 and the two moving averages. Now the payoff is in play, with room to possibly run to $69.80 over the near-term.

Technical Setup Points to Higher Prices as Fundamentals Align

If you believe that “technicals precede fundamentals,” then you’re in a good position because the chart formation is nearly screaming higher prices, while the fundamentals are slowly lining up. The biggest fundamental factor underpinning the market now is the fear of a supply disruption. According to Reuters, prices are up on rising concerns about the potential impact a possible U.S. military attack on Iran could have on supply. Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, represents an output of 3.2 million barrels per day. This is hardly an insignificant amount and one that could put an additional $10 on this rally fairly quickly.

Strait of Hormuz: The Ultimate Supply Risk

But the even greater concern is the potential extension of military action from Iran to the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day of oil navigate through.

The Bottom Line: Clear Skies Ahead

Essentially, with the noise finally cleared on the daily chart, crude oil now has room to run higher, virtually unimpeded. Buyers are just waiting for the spark, which could come out of the Middle East.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.