Oil News: Iran Talks Ease Crude Oil Fears, OPEC Production Hike in Focus

Crude Oil Slips as Iran Eases Tensions, OPEC+ Prepares Output Hike

Oil prices edged lower on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, easing geopolitical tensions even as the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran’s oil trade.

Trading was thinner due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, limiting volumes and volatility.

Is OPEC+ Ready to Regain Market Share?

Four OPEC+ delegates confirmed the group is preparing to announce a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August, aiming to claw back market share.

This aligns with recent technical levels showing Brent stabilizing near $67.66, just above its 50-day simple moving average at $66.10, while remaining below the 200-day SMA resistance near $71.28.

WTI futures are hovering near $66.84, testing resistance at $67.58 after bouncing off support at $64.00. Technical charts indicate a tight consolidation zone as traders weigh upcoming supply increases against summer demand strength.

Iran Nuclear Talks Ease Supply Shock Concerns

The market absorbed news that the U.S. is preparing to meet with Iran to restart nuclear talks, following Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s assurance that Tehran remains committed to the U.N. atomic agency. This clarification eases concerns of a fresh Middle East supply shock, especially after Saudi officials met with U.S. representatives to discuss de-escalation.

These developments have reduced immediate geopolitical risk premiums in crude futures, dampening speculative bids above resistance levels seen in June near $76.10 for WTI and $78.40 for Brent.

Will U.S. Tariffs Disrupt Demand Recovery?

Attention now turns to trade uncertainty as the end of the 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs approaches on July 9. President Trump’s administration is set to send letters outlining 20% to 30% tariff rates, with major trading partners including the EU and Japan yet to secure deals.

Traders remain watchful, as higher tariffs could dampen global demand and pressure the refined products market, indirectly weighing on crude prices.

Market Outlook: Cautiously Bearish Near-Term

With OPEC+ preparing to raise output and geopolitical tensions easing, upside catalysts are softening while near-term resistance levels remain intact. Brent faces resistance at $71.20 and WTI near $67.58, while both benchmarks hold above key 50-day SMAs.

The near-term oil prices forecast remains cautiously bearish, with potential retests of $66.00 for Brent and $64.00 for WTI if the supply increase aligns with muted demand recovery, particularly if U.S. tariff tensions escalate into July.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.