Oil News: OPEC Analysis Backs Demand Resilience, WTI Tests $67.44 Zone

Oil Prices Forecast: Traders Eye Fed Policy and Trump Tariffs as WTI Holds Key Support

Light crude oil futures edged lower Thursday, with WTI holding above the long-term 50% retracement at $67.44 but lacking strength to test the short-term pivot near $71.20. This reflects a market in wait mode, seeking a clear bullish catalyst to break out of its subdued trading range.

On the downside, if WTI fails to hold $67.44, prices risk sliding toward the 200-day moving average at $65.29, where buyers may re-emerge around this long-term value area, offering potential support for a technical bounce.

At 10:39 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $67.99, down $0.39 or -0.57%.

Trump Tariffs and Federal Reserve Outlook Weigh on Crude Oil News Today

Oil’s pullback followed renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who targeted Brazil with a potential 50% export tariff and signaled broader measures on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. While markets have learned to discount Trump’s tariff threats due to past reversals, traders remain cautious as tariff risks could slow global economic growth, dampening oil demand.

The Federal Reserve minutes showed only limited appetite for near-term rate cuts, with policymakers concerned about inflationary pressures from potential tariffs. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, reducing demand for oil and risk appetite in broader markets, keeping traders defensive.

OPEC Production Plans and Supply Uncertainties Support Oil Prices Projections

While OPEC+ announced plans for further production boosts, there is skepticism these quotas will translate into actual supply increases. Russia faces constraints due to infrastructure issues, and some members are already exceeding quotas. OPEC’s longer-term outlook indicates continued demand growth, with no sign of peak oil use despite lowering medium-term forecasts due to slower Chinese growth and EV penetration.

OPEC projects global demand to reach 105 million bpd this year, climbing to 111.6 million bpd by 2029, well above IEA’s expected demand peak of 105.6 million bpd by 2029. This divergence in forecasts underlines ongoing uncertainty over supply-demand balances.

Strong Gasoline Demand and Record Flights Highlight Demand Resilience

Supporting the market, the EIA reported rising U.S. gasoline demand, up 6% to 9.2 million bpd last week, while global daily flights hit a record 107,600 in early July. Port and freight activity also indicate sustained trade expansion, reinforcing demand stability even as broader macroeconomic risks weigh.

Market Outlook: Neutral with Downside Risk

Current supply resilience and demand firmness provide a neutral bias, but without a fresh bullish catalyst, oil prices face downside risk toward the $65.29 level if key support breaks, while upside potential remains capped at $71.44 in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.