Oil News: Tariff Tensions Pressure Crude Oil, but Bullish Outlook Holds

Crude Oil Slips on Tariff Tensions, but Market Eyes Key Technical Levels

Light crude oil futures were under slight pressure for a second session on Friday, even as the market looked set to post weekly gains. Traders are digesting the implications of sweeping new U.S. tariffs and their potential to disrupt global trade flows, with WTI still up over 6% on the week and Brent nearly 5% higher.

At 10:41 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $69.11, down $0.15 or -0.22%.

Oil Prices Forecast Shaped by U.S. Tariffs and Trade Deal Gaps

Crude prices steadied Friday after dropping over 1% the day before, as investors evaluated the economic fallout of a newly signed executive order by President Donald Trump. The order imposes 10% to 41% tariffs on imports from countries like India, Canada, and Taiwan that failed to reach trade agreements by the August 1 deadline. Tariff-exempt partners include the EU, South Korea, Japan, and the U.K.

While the immediate market reaction has been muted, analysts caution that these levies could raise domestic prices, slow economic growth, and indirectly dent oil demand. The latest U.S. inflation data already suggests rising costs from earlier tariffs, adding weight to concerns about sustained price pressure.

Geopolitical Risk: Russian Crude Buyers Face Threats of Sanctions

Beyond tariffs, supply risk is in focus after President Trump threatened 100% secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude, escalating pressure on countries like China and India.

JP Morgan analysts estimate these threats could endanger up to 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne exports. With China and India ranking as the world’s second- and third-largest crude consumers, any disruption could significantly tighten global supply and fuel bullish sentiment.

Key Technical Levels Define Immediate Oil Prices Projections

On the technical side, the short-term range for WTI crude is $64.11 to $70.51, with initial support at the 50% retracement level of $67.31. Further downside support lies near $65.38 and $64.07—the long-term pivot and 200-day moving average, respectively.

A sustained move above the $69.89 pivot would suggest renewed buying pressure. A decisive break above $70.51 could open the door to an upside target zone between $77.09 and $77.64.

Market Outlook: Bullish Momentum Holds, but Tariff Risks Loom

Despite short-term softness, the broader outlook for oil prices remains bullish as geopolitical tensions and trade-related supply risks support the upside case.

However, traders should watch tariff impacts closely, as weakening economic growth could temper demand recovery and cap rallies.

For now, bullish potential remains intact as long as prices stay above key technical support and geopolitical risk premiums stay elevated.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.