Oil News: WTI Futures Straddle 200-Day MA as Traders Brace for OPEC+ Supply Decision

WTI Crude Battles Key Technical Levels While Awaiting OPEC+ Outcome

Light crude oil futures are testing the 200-day moving average for a second straight session on Friday, reflecting growing indecision among traders ahead of Sunday’s critical OPEC+ meeting. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dipped slightly, with the market hesitating around this technical pivot point, suggesting a potential inflection in trend depending on the cartel’s supply decision.

Holding above the 200-day MA would tilt sentiment bullish, but several layers of resistance could stall upside momentum. The first technical ceiling stands at the 50-day moving average near $64.40, followed closely by a cluster of resistance points—$64.56, $65.41, $66.03, and $66.18. A breakout above $66.18 could trigger a sharper rally, targeting $68.70 to $69.69. However, a decisive break below the 200-day average would confirm bearish pressure, potentially opening the door for a drop toward the August 13 low of $61.12.

At 09:18 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $63.39, down $0.09 or -0.14%.

OPEC+ Output Talks Fuel Supply Uncertainty

Oil traders are bracing for potential volatility as reports suggest eight OPEC+ members are considering increasing production. If confirmed at Sunday’s meeting, this would signal the early unwinding of additional cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day—about 1.6% of global demand—well ahead of schedule. The strategy appears aimed at reclaiming market share but could flood the market with barrels just as demand signals weaken.

Brent crude is on pace for a 2.2% weekly loss, while WTI is down 1.3% heading into the weekend. These declines mark the first weekly drop in three weeks, driven by renewed supply pressure and a surprise 2.4 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories, which defied analyst expectations for a draw.

U.S. Inventory Surprise and Refinery Headwinds Add to Bearish Tone

The unexpected rise in U.S. crude stocks is adding to near-term demand concerns, especially as refining margins come under pressure. According to BMI analysts, although downstream strength has provided recent support, global demand growth is starting to wane, and upcoming refinery maintenance could dent throughput, weakening buying interest.

John Evans of PVM highlighted the growing belief that feedstock supply is no longer a constraint, further dampening bullish enthusiasm. However, geopolitical risks remain a wildcard, with reports that the U.S. is pressuring Europe to halt Russian oil purchases—an action that could restrict supply and offer price support.

Outlook: Bearish Near-Term Tone Unless OPEC+ Surprises with Restraint

With WTI futures straddling the 200-day moving average and signs pointing to increased supply, the near-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. Unless OPEC+ delivers a surprise production freeze or curbs, traders should prepare for further downside pressure, particularly if WTI closes below the key support zone.

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