Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Face Pressure Despite Middle East Risk

Oil prices continue to drop on Tuesday despite strong uncertainty in the Middle East. The prices show strong volatility, as a risk premium was maintained in crude prices amid threats of resurgent strikes on both sides.

The oil prices have rallied in the past session as the hopes for a swift end to the conflict were stoked after Israel’s renewed attacks on Lebanon. The oil rally stopped following Iran’s announcement that its military operations against Israel were over. But traders are still concerned that the break could only be a temporary one, particularly after Israel threatened strong action against Iran if it attacked again.

The biggest threat to oil prices is the Strait of Hormuz. Much of the world’s oil supply passes through this corridor. If the oil flow through the Strait remains disrupted, the price may remain uncertain. The U.S. blockade against Iran also puts pressure on the oil market. Oil prices could remain robust as long as the war continues. But the headlines may drive the short-term direction and initiate corrections.

WTI Oil Technical Analysis – $87 Support Comes Into Focus

The short-term direction for WTI crude oil remains negative, as seen by the 4-hour chart below. The chart shows that the descending trendline of the triangle pattern protects the rally in WTI oil at $97. The immediate target for WTI crude oil remains $87. A break below $87 will open the door for further downside towards $80.

On the other hand, a break above $97.50 will push the oil price towards $105. A break above $105 will push WTI crude oil towards $120.

The broader price action of WTI oil shows strong consolidation between $80 and $120. A break of this broader consolidation range will define the next move.

The monthly chart for WTI oil also shows that the oil price failed to close above the $110 on a monthly basis and corrected towards $80. The monthly candle for May was negative and closed below $90, which indicates strong uncertainty in crude oil prices.

The supply shortage keeps the bullish momentum, but technical profit taking at the resistance area pushes prices lower. This creates strong volatility in WTI prices, which may keep prices within a strong consolidation range.

The RSI indicator also shows strong overbought conditions in the short term, which led to a strong correction in April 2026. Only a monthly close above $110 will likely keep the strength in WTI crude oil prices.

Brent Oil Technical Analysis – $90 Support Defines the Next Move

The short-term price action for Brent crude oil also remains negative, as prices failed to rally from the $90 region. The price remains under pressure and moves towards the $90 area.

A break below $90 will likely push Brent crude oil towards $80. As long as Brent crude oil remains above $80, prices will likely rally back towards $120. Brent crude oil also shows strong consolidation between $90 and $120 like WTI.

The RSI indicator suggests further downside in the short term as it remains below the midline. This suggests that Brent oil needs one more push downside to complete the short term correction.

The monthly outlook for Brent crude oil also suggests that June could be a correction month before the next rally begins.

As long as Brent crude oil remains below $127, it will likely consolidate above the $80 region and keep the market highly volatile.

Bottom Line

Oil prices are trapped between solid geopolitical risk and short-term technical pressures. The risk premium in the market remains alive due to the Middle East conflict. The main risk comes from the Strait of Hormuz, which remains restricted for global supply. But WTI and Brent have weak short-term price action after failing near the resistance levels. This suggests the oil price may remain volatile within a broad consolidation range. This consolidation remains within the $80 and $120 and the price must break these levels to define the next move.

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