Pi (PI) has been one of the most underwhelming crypto projects of the year as this token went through a dramatic boom and bust cycle that makes it look like a pump-and-dump scheme.
As top exchanges refused to list its token after the public mainnet was launched, the market cap of PI progressively collapsed from a post-launch high of nearly $19 billion to just $2.2 billion at the time of writing.
Investors who bought at or near that peak have lost hundreds of millions with this project and the Pi Core Team has failed to address the core concerns that have negatively impacted its reputation.
Not even an in-person gathering with Pi’s founders in Seoul was able to save the asset from plummeting below a key support at $0.40 that had acted as a cushion during previous price drops.
Data from Pi Scan shows that a big load of tokens will be unlocked within the next few days. The first of these tranches consists of 13 million PI coins that will hit the market in September 30, followed by another 12 million in October 3.
PI Token Migrations in September – Source: Pi Scan
This means a 0.3% increase in the token’s circulating supply in just 4 days. Migrations to the Pi public mainnet continue and, as supply increases and demand dries up, the price seems poised to keep dropping.
In September alone, more than 200 million were migrated to the public mainnet, meaning a 2.4% increase in the asset’s circulating supply. If this rhythm continues, market forces may do little to keep the price from retreating further.
Pi hit a new all-time low yesterday as it dropped to $0.22. Trading volumes have been higher than usual as the market as a whole experienced a strong wave of selling.
Yesterday, nearly $160 million worth of PI exchanged hands, representing an 8X increase compared to the previous day. This could be flagged as an ‘institutional-grade’ liquidation event that could anticipate more losses ahead.
We could anticipate a recovery to the $0.30 area over the next few days for Pi as this was a strong area of support previously. If selling pressure increases once again as the token hits this market, the odds favor another push toward its all-time lows.
PI/USD 4-Hour Chart (Bitget) – Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 4-hour chart has hit deep oversold levels, emphasizing the strength of the latest wave of negative momentum. Although this could result in a short-term rebound led by purely technical reasons, it also means that sellers are in full control of the price action.
PI’s bulls should not get their hopes up even if the token produces some attractive gains in the next few days if it targets that $0.30 area. The long-term outlook remains bearish as the project’s fundamentals are weak and community support is at an all-time low.
No ecosystem growth initiative, community update, or network upgrade has been sufficient to change the market’s negative sentiment toward Pi and CEX’s reluctance to list the token does not help its case either.
Only a high-profile listing at venues like Binance or Coinbase could change the fate (and trajectory) of this token at the time, and that seems highly unlikely.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.