Political Tensions Hit French Markets: CAC 40 Slumps, Yields at Five-Month High

With all three major opposition parties vowing to oppose him, Bayrou’s minority government now appears at serious risk of collapse — a prospect that has rattled investors and driven stocks and bonds lower.

CAC 40 Plunges, Bond Yields Soar as France Faces Confidence Vote

French markets tumbled on Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses, as political tensions deepened ahead of a high-stakes confidence vote that could topple Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government. France now heads into an uncertain autumn marked by budget battles, street protests, and rising pressure from investors.

Bayrou, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron after Michel Barnier’s government collapsed in a confidence vote last December, announced on Monday that he will seek parliamentary backing on 8 September. The decision reflects a political deadlock over the government’s proposed 2026 budget, which has become the focal point of the crisis. Adding to the turmoil, unions and activist groups are calling for a nationwide “total blockade” beginning on 10 September, threatening to paralyze economic activity.

At the heart of the standoff is Bayrou’s fiscal consolidation plan, presented in July. The blueprint aims to shrink France’s deficit from a projected 5.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, and eventually to 2.8% by 2029. To meet its target, the government has outlined a plan for €43.8 billion in savings for 2026. The bulk of this (80%) will be achieved through spending reductions, such as slowing public sector hiring, freezing pension and tax adjustments, and getting rid of two public holidays. Bayrou warned that without action, France’s debt trajectory would deteriorate sharply, reaching 125% of GDP by 2029. His plan would instead cap it at around 117%.

But the proposals have met fierce resistance across the political spectrum. From Marine Le Pen’s National Rally on the right to the Socialists, Greens, and France Unbowed on the left, opposition parties have rejected the plan outright, arguing it places the burden on households while lacking broad consensus. With the government facing almost unanimous hostility, Bayrou’s chances of survival look slim, fueling investor anxiety about both political stability and fiscal credibility.

The likely fall of the government is weighing heavily on markets — and has already begun to reshape the outlook for France’s economy and debt sustainability. The uncertainty rattled investors, sending the CAC 40 (Fra40) down more than 3.3% since Monday, its sharpest decline in weeks. At the same time, bond markets flashed warning signs. France’s 10-year yield climbed above 3.50%, its highest level since March, as investors demanded greater compensation to hold French debt.

The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to 77 basis points, compared with 69 basis points earlier this week. This widening gap reflects the increasing premium investors require for holding French OATs relative to German Bunds, which are considered the eurozone’s safest benchmark. While Germany benefits from a reputation for fiscal prudence and political stability, France is now seen as riskier, given its high debt levels, widening deficit, and mounting political uncertainty.

The spread acts as a barometer of market confidence within the eurozone, and the recent jump highlights fears that France could face higher financing costs for longer if instability persists.

Financial stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, with Société Générale plunging more than 10.5% over the past five sessions, while BNP Paribas slipped over 8%, AXA lost more than 9%, and Crédit Agricole fell nearly 8%. Banks and insurers are often the first to feel the impact of political instability and rising sovereign borrowing costs, as their balance sheets are heavily exposed to government bonds.

When yields on French debt rise, the market value of these bonds declines, eroding the capital positions of lenders and insurers that hold them in large quantities. In addition, political uncertainty raises doubts about the government’s ability to implement reforms or maintain fiscal discipline, which in turn undermines confidence in the broader financial system. For banks in particular, higher sovereign yields also mean higher funding costs, tightening conditions just as credit demand is already weakening in a slower economy. Together, these pressures explain why the financial sector has been at the forefront of the selloff.

Weekly CAC 40 Index Technical Outlook

The CAC 40 has come under heavy pressure, with the index falling back toward 7,700. This week’s 3.4% decline not only wiped out recent gains but also reinforced the market’s difficulty in breaking above the 7,960–8,225 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped rallies since 2024.

Prices have remained trapped in a wide consolidation range between roughly 7,500 and 8,200 since April, with each attempt to test the upper boundary followed by sharp pullbacks. The most recent rejection underscores investor hesitation amid tightening financial conditions and rising bond yields.

The Ichimoku Cloud highlights this indecision: while the index is still hovering near the cloud’s upper edge, the inability to establish sustained momentum above resistance suggests that bullish conviction is fading. A decisive weekly close below 7,641, the baseline of the Ichimoku system, would increase the risk of a deeper retracement below the cloud toward the lower boundary of the range near 7,500. Beneath that level, the index could retest the previous yearly low below the 7,000 key level.

The RSI has slipped to around 49, firmly in neutral territory and trending lower, suggesting fading buying pressure. Unless momentum stabilizes, sellers could remain in control in the near term.

Sources: CNBC, ING, BBC, France24, The Wall Street Journal