Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Will the Fed Trigger a New Gold Breakout Next Week?

The Gold Market Pushes Toward Record Highs

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed out a strong week, and you can feel how close we are to retesting that $4,381.44 record from mid-October.

Traders watched the early November pullback get erased as the metal caught steady bids from three places at once: a softer U.S. dollar, a sharp reset in Fed expectations, and steady geopolitical stress that kept safe-haven flows alive.

With XAUUSD finishing at $4,215.82, the market is back in striking range of the highs and has now gained nearly 59% over the past year.

Technically, XAUUSD settled on the strong side of a short-term pivot at $4133.95, which is new support. It also puts the market within striking distance of a minor top at $4245.20, which is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the record high at $4381.44.

How the Dollar’s Drop Boosted Gold Price

The dollar finally gave gold traders some breathing room. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week at 99.479, down 0.717 or -0.72%, and almost 6% lower over twelve months. We all know the drill: a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for overseas buyers, and this week’s move clearly helped demand. When the dollar softens this much, the bid in gold usually isn’t far behind — and that’s exactly what played out.

Fed Policy Is Back in the Driver’s Seat for Gold Analysis

The bigger catalyst came from the Fed. Entering the week, the street had only priced in 30–35% odds of a December cut. By Friday, that jumped to roughly 70–80%.

Comments from New York Fed President John Williams reinforced the idea that the central bank still sees room to ease further.

With the federal funds rate sitting at 3.75%–4.00% after two cuts this fall, traders leaned into the idea that the opportunity cost of holding gold is falling again — and that’s historically supportive for continued strength.

Falling Treasury Yields Add Fuel to the Gold Rally

The bond market backed the move. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.017%, down 0.050 or -1.23%. Lower yields reduce the appeal of government paper relative to a non-yielding asset like gold. When rate-cut bets rise and the long end follows, gold typically benefits, and this week fit that pattern perfectly.

Global Forces Keep Safe-Haven Demand in Play

Fundamentals outside the U.S. also supported the metal. The economy continues to post a mixed setup: Q3 GDP held near 2.7% annualized, but jobs are losing momentum with just 119,000 new positions in September and unemployment inching up to 4.4%.

Add unresolved tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict plus ongoing trade uncertainty, and it’s no surprise that central bank gold buying hit 634 tonnes through Q3 — up 28% from the previous quarter.

Gold Price Forecast Heading Into the December Fed Meeting

Short-term, the bias stays bullish as long as the market expects a December rate cut. If the Fed delivers the quarter-point move on December 9–10, gold has a clear path to retest the October peak. A surprise hold would cool enthusiasm, but right now, policy expectations, soft yields, and global stress keep the advantage with buyers.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.