Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

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Updated: Aug 26, 2015, 11:55 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued to dip today seeming immune to the market stress. Gold fell to trade at 1132.40 down by $7 while Silver

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to dip today seeming immune to the market stress. Gold fell to trade at 1132.40 down by $7 while Silver tumbled 165 points to 14.445 weighed down by base metals. Platinum added $3.20 to 979.90. Gold seems to have lost its appeal earlier in the week along with bonds due to position adjustment after Monday’s surge and as safe-haven bets shifted to EUR, USD, and lately stocks after China’s rate cuts. Gold is on a reversal from its peak at 1170 and today’s support level is found at a double bottom at 1134.7, ahead of 38.2% Fibonacci at 1132.7.

Gold fell more than 1 per cent after an interest rate cut from China helped global markets rebound from the previous day’s rout, with stocks rallying and the dollar also gaining, while palladium sank more than 7 per cent to a five-year low.

Bullion extended losses after data showed US consumer confidence hit a seven-month high in August. This suggested underlying strength in the economy that could still allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

And although stocks failed to impress, gold also remained under pressure as a US interest rate hike in September still hasn’t been ruled out despite the much lower probability compared to a few weeks ago. But the metal is expected to have solid ground in the near-term amid high volatility and uncertainty in the global financial markets.

According to Bloomberg data, traders evaluate the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September at 26%, down from 40% at the end of July. Data on Tuesday showed that consumer confidence in the US hit a seven-month high in August, with the corresponding index by the Conference Board hitting 101.5, well above a projected jump to 93.4 from an upward-revised 91.0 in July. Meanwhile, sales of new homes rebounded last month, coming in largely in line with expectations, while services sector activity posted solid growth in August, suggesting underlying economic strength that has been the basis of broad expectations for the Fed to hike this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-7.300M	1.900M	-2.300M
NZD	Trade Balance (MoM) (Jul)	-649M	-750M	-194M
NZD	Trade Balance (YoY) (Jul)	-2,690M	-2,660M	-2,850M
AUD	Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q2)	1.6%	-1.5%	-0.8%
GBP	BBA Mortgages	46.0k	46.0k	44.8k

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Private New Capital Expenditure		-2.5%	-4.4%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Aug)		3.1%	3.5%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Aug)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		1.0%	1.0%
RUB	Central Bank reserves (USD)			362.9B
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		3.2%	2.3%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		2.0%	2.0%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		274K	277K
USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)		1.0%	-1.8%