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Barry Norman

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 7, 2015 - Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is flat as traders wait for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report and watch an array of Fed speakers. Gold is trading at 1084.70 while Silver is in the red at 14.53 and Platinum is in the green adding $1.90 to 952.80.  Prices are falling as investors dump the metal in favor of stocks, bonds, or cash, which they see as a better short-term investment. Gold is losing its luster as the Greek crisis has quieted and the U.S. economy is looking increasingly strong; on Thursday, the U.S. government reported the lowest weekly jobless claims in over 40 years.

Longer term, there are increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates this year after eight years of falling or flat rates, which has been dampening investment interest in gold. Many would-be gold buyers seek the metal as protection against inflation, but higher interest rates could prevent prices from rising.

Asian gold demand hardly perked up this week even as the price of the precious metal languished near its lowest since 2010 with many would-be buyers predicting further price declines, keeping premiums steady in the world’s top gold consuming region.

Gold is on course to post a sixth consecutive weekly loss, its longest retreat since 1999, after U.S. economic expansion in the first half backed expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

38.5K

10.0K

7.0K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

6.3%

6.0%

6.1%

   

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

2.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

7.9%

8.2%

9.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Aug)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

 

223K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

5.3%

5.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

 

5.0K

-6.4K

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Jul)

 

52.0

55.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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