Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

By:

Updated: Nov 13, 2015, 12:35 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold surprised traders and gained $5.30 to trade at 1086.30 still down for the week as traders are now considering the US

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 - Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold surprised traders and gained $5.30 to trade at 1086.30 still down for the week as traders are now considering the US Fed pace of rate increases. Silver added 85 points and Platinum soared $8.60 to 883.70. Platinum, used primarily in diesel filters, has also been hit by concern that demand will falter in the wake of the Volkswagen AG emissions scandal.

Gold has been under pressure recently as market expectations for a December rate hike in the United States strengthened after a robust nonfarm payrolls report earlier this month.

Fed officials lined up behind a likely December interest rate hike on Thursday with one key central banker saying the risk of waiting too long was now roughly in balance with the risk of moving too soon to normalize rates after seven years near zero.

At the same time, investor expectations of a rate increase in December remained high, further pressuring the prices for the precious metal. Gold pays its holders nothing and struggles to compete with yield-bearing investments when rates rise.

Fed funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, showed Wednesday that they see a 70% likelihood of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, according to data from CME Group. The probability was 58% before last Friday’s jobs report and 38% before the Fed’s interest-rate statement last month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.8%	1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)	20.5B	18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)			0.1%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		-0.1%	-0.3%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		-0.2%	-1.2%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.2%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-5.00	-11.36