Precious Metals Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gave up over $4 to trade at 1079.40 as traders relaxed after the terror situation this weekend and returned to the Federal Reserve rate increase discussions. The conversation seems to be shifting from when to how much and how many increases are ahead. Silver is flat but remains at a bottom trading at 14.22. Platinum added $4.70 as trades bought up the extremely cheap metal. Platinum is trading at 870.25.

Gold declined for a sixth day and traded near the lowest level in more than five years on expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon raise US interest rates, eclipsing an increase in demand for the metal following the terrorist attacks in France.

On Monday, gold advanced 1.3% in the wake of the violence in Paris, before ending 0.1% lower.

Demand for haven assets faded over the course of the first trading day since Friday’s attacks, as the history of reactions to terror incidents around the world over the last 15 years show market moves becoming increasingly short-lived. Investors’ focus returned to the outlook for US borrowing costs, and inflation figures set for release on Tuesday will provide additional clues on whether the Fed will tighten.

“The initial rise in gold prices on the back of safe-haven flows has since been almost entirely unwound,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group wrote in a note. “A Fed rate-rise still dominates the negative price outlook.”

Futures show a 66% chance the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will announce a rate increase after its December 15-16 meeting, up from a 50% probability at the end of October.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus