Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Waiting for Next Catalyst to Drive Price Action

Gold is trading slightly lower Thursday while clawing back earlier losses. The range remains tight as investors continue to assess the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields, a firm U.S. Dollar and the potential for stock market volatility. Traders appear to be waiting for a trigger to generate some fresh volatility.

At 0945 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1226.00, down $1.40 or -0.11%.

On Thursday, gold was pressured by hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve minutes from its September meeting. Fed policymakers voted unanimously to raise its benchmark rate 25-basis points. Furthermore, it also said it will maintain its policy of gradual rate hikes because it is the best policy to follow – one that helps slow inflation while allowing the economy to continue to grow.

At its meeting on September 25 to September 26, the Fed also said it will raise rates in December, possibly three more times in 2019 and at least once in 2020.

In economic news, U.S. building permits came in at 1.24 million. This was below the 1.27 million forecast. Housing starts were also below the forecast

Forecast

Gold investors continue to receive mixed signals from a few key outside market drivers. Bullish factors for gold include stock market volatility and weakness, a falling U.S. Dollar and a drop in interest rates. Gold could feel downside pressure if demand for risk returns, rates rise and the dollar trades steady to better.

Key U.S. economic data to watch today includes the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board’s Leading Index and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Overall, the stock market trend and volatility will be the primary drivers of the price action.