Advertisement
Advertisement

Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Hope, Fear and Greed Driving Prices Higher

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Feb 24, 2020, 05:10 UTC

Gold investors aren’t waiting for the data to confirm the severity of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy. They are already betting on weak numbers.

Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Hope, Fear and Greed Driving Prices Higher

Gold gapped higher on Monday after reports showed the coronavirus outbreak was spreading around the world, threatening lives and the global economy. G20 finance ministers and central bankers declared in a statement over the weekend that current global economic growth remains slow with the coronavirus outbreak posing the greatest risk.

At 00:06 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1667.10, up $18.30 or +1.11%. The high of the session is $1684.10.

Despite the outlook, the G20 said that global economic growth is expected to pick up “modestly” in 2020 and 2021.

“Global economic growth remains slow and downside risks to the outlook persist, including those arising from geopolitical and remaining trade tensions, and policy uncertainty. We will enhance global risk monitoring, including of the recent outbreak of COVID-19. We stand ready to take further action to address these risks,” according to the final document of the conference.

CNN reported the host of the G20 meeting, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan, said that countries will be ready to act on the risk coronavirus poses to commerce.

“We all agreed that all countries and states will be ready to intervene as needed to face these risks and it’ll be a multilateral intervention including the WHO (World Health Organization) to monitor these risks and use relevant policies as needed,” Jadaan said.

International Monetary Fund Revises Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Saturday that the virus will likely cut off 0.1% from global growth, and drag down growth for China’s economy to 5.6%, which is 0.4% lower from its January outlook.

“But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin:  Too Early to Speculate About Longer-Term Impact of Coronavirus

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday central bankers will look at options for responding to the fast-spreading coronavirus as needed.

Mnuchin told reporters after a meeting of finance officials from the world’s 20 largest economies that it was too early to speculate about the longer-term impact of the deadly outbreak, but more would be known in three to four weeks.

“I’m not going to comment on monetary policy, but obviously central bankers will look at various different options as this has an impact on the economy,” Mnuchin said.

Weekly Forecast

Gold investors aren’t waiting for the data to confirm the severity of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy. They are already betting on weak numbers.

Gold investors aren’t waiting for the central banks to cut interest rates and implement quantitative easing. They aren’t waiting for fiscal stimulus from the major economies. They are betting on it.

However, the market won’t go straight up with a meaningful correction or two. Traders have to eat so they will lighten up and book profits along the way. Hedge funds like to be right and enhance their returns, but they can’t take a performance fee unless they book profits.

The main trend is up, momentum is up and the fundamentals are bullish, but you’re still going to have to use your trading skills to make money.

The best recommendation at this time is to know your exit before you get it. Be careful chasing new highs and be prepared to enter on the 50% retracements of whatever time period you decide to trade.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement