Rising Trend Channel Indicates Potential Upside for Natural Gas

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 15.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas is running out of momentum as it attempts to continue the advance off the 2.14 swing low hit nine days ago. Nonetheless, today’s price action was bullish as yesterday’s high was exceeded, as well as the most recent swing high at 2.38. Today’s high was 2.39 at the time of this writing. Rising above the swing high is most significant, as that triggers a bullish trend continuation. A daily close above 2.39 is needed to confirm strength, and it does not look like that will happen today.

Daily Close Above 2.39 Confirms Strength

Once a daily close occurs above 2.39, natural gas is on the way higher. There are a number of potential intermediary target levels defined by Fibonacci levels, weekly highs, and prior swing highs. Each defines a price area where some degree of resistance might be seen. The more significant pattern that is evolving is the rising trend channel. It already has a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, the definition of an uptrend.

Rising Trend Channel Points to Higher Prices

Once a trend begins it has a tendency to continue for a while. The rising channel is advancing within the third rally off the trend low at 2. Markets frequently do things in threes, and it looks like that it is happening with natural gas. The next logical upside targets given the rising trend channel is a move to the top of the channel. That occurs when price hits the rising trend line at the top of the channel. It so happens that the next more significant price target zone includes the top channel line. A resistance zone is measured from a low of 2.77 and up to 2.83.

If Support is Broken, a Further Pullback or Additional Consolidation Likely

On the downside, near-term support is at today’s low of 2.29. A daily close below there opens up a possible test of the uptrend line as well as the minor swing low from two days ago. Those price levels are roughly 2.20 for the line, while the minor swing low is around 2.21. The uptrend line should act as support if price does fall to test it again. It defines the rising channel and provides a bullish outlook. A daily close below it changes the character of natural gas and signals possible further weakening.

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