Robinhood Stock (HOOD) Snubbed by S&P 500 Again—Will a $100 B Valuation Hold or Fold?

Last Friday night after the stock market closed, the S&P 500 announced its latest changes. Robinhood Markets (HOOD), rumored by many to be among the new stocks in the world’s most prominent stock market benchmark, will not be part of the class of July 23, 2025, when the latest adjustments to the S&P 500 are made.

For those not familiar, the S&P 500’s stocks are selected by a committee that meets each month. HOOD has been the subject of much speculation, and traders can find scores of articles making the “buy now” case for the stock on that basis. However, this is where “buy the rumor, sell the news” comes from, as HOOD dropped back in Monday’s trading.

That is all beyond the control of investors. This latest snub of HOOD, which is approaching a $100 million market cap, a week before it hits the 4-year mark as a public company, takes that anticipation off the table for now. That leaves the question of what else can move HOOD, up, down or sideways, in the coming weeks and months.

And, as pop star and recent astronaut Katy Perry sang in her 2011 hit “Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F), while last Friday night didn’t work out as HOOD shareholders might have hoped, there are other Fridays ahead. Many of them. So to borrow a few words from that song, let’s try to help those trying to connect the dots, on HOOD. Let’s check it out.

Lofty Fundamentals: Can HOOD Grow Into Its Valuation?

As impressive as the stock’s growth in price and its underlying business, there are a lot of figures in this table below that are the type we may look back on and say “we should have known.” 60x trailing earnings is high. So is 30x sales. However, if revenues continue to accelerate 60% and the stock’s debt level doesn’t get out of hand, this is a stock that might grow into its lofty multiple. Personally, I’m not counting on that.

HOOD fundamental summary. Source: Ycharts.

However, I’ve also never owned HOOD, so I’ve missed out on all of this, that massive runup below. Technically, the stock looks a lot like many market leaders, such as those in the technology sector. That it, the price has risen at a breakneck pace, and it current showing signs of being somewhere between resting and exhausted, price-wise.

Momentum Takes a Breather

HOOD, daily technical chart. Source: Barchart.

That was a daily chart. This weekly chart below leans more risky to me. It shows that nearly straight up move, and the PPO indicator at bottom (my personal favorite by far), is just above where it peaked when the stock did last time around. That was just earlier this year, and HOOD fell from $65 to $34 in about 8 weeks. And here it is, at about $106, less than 4 months after crashing.

HOOD, weekly technical chart. Source: Barchart.

Bottom Line: A High‑Risk, High‑Reward Play

If there was ever a time to acknowledge fundamentals, but place them gently on the side of one’s desk, just out of view, this would be that time. The stock market wants what it wants, until it doesn’t. That translates to HOOD being a high reward/high risk situation, now more than at any time since it was embroiled in the “Roaring Kitty” mess, and since the Liberation Day market slide this past April.

HOOD getting left out of the S&P 500 index one again is not a big deal beyond the current moment. However, the bigger issue is whether it is fully valued. Technically and fundamentally it is not difficult to make a case that it is. But as with many popular stocks in 2025, sheer assets, will and enthusiasm can always lift it higher.