Silver Prices Forecast: Calm Trading Sees Modest Gains Amid Fed Stability

James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 22, 2024, 12:02 UTC

Key Points:

  • Silver prices rise modestly in a stable trading environment.
  • 50-day and 200-day moving averages critical for silver price direction.
  • Bond market yields diverge, affecting silver market sentiment.
Silver Prices Forecast

In this article:

Silver Market Overview

Silver traders are currently witnessing a modest increase in prices in what can be described as a relatively calm trading period. The Federal Reserve’s recent release of meeting minutes, which aligned with market expectations, has provided a stable backdrop for the silver market. Additionally, a weakening U.S. Dollar, now below its 200-day moving average against major currencies, is lending support to silver prices. However, the mixed signals emanating from the Treasury markets are keeping silver prices within a tight intraday range.

At 11:50 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $23.07, up $0.18 or +0.80%.

Silver Traders Eyeing Daily Moving Averages

The technical perspective on the daily chart is crucial for understanding silver’s short-term movements. The key levels to watch are the 50-day moving average at $23.13 and the 200-day moving average at $23.29. These moving averages have acted as a barrier for silver prices since the beginning of January. A strong move above these levels could significantly influence the market’s direction in the near term, provided there is enough momentum and trading volume to back it up.

Bond Market’s Influence

The bond market is presenting a mixed scenario, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreasing slightly, while the 2-year Treasury yield is on the rise. This divergence reflects the investors’ concerns regarding the future direction of interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s minutes from their January meeting have indicated a cautious approach towards rate cuts, preferring to wait for more solid evidence of inflation moving sustainably towards their 2% target.

Fed’s Cautious Stance and Market Reaction

Despite initial expectations of rate cuts possibly starting in March, the market consensus is now shifting towards June. This adjustment in expectations is largely due to recent data showing an unexpected rise in U.S. producer and consumer prices, alongside a strong labor market. These factors are causing a recalibration of expectations for imminent rate cuts, with the probability of a rate decrease by May now significantly lowered.

Short-Term Outlook for Silver

Considering the current market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s influence, the short-term outlook for silver appears cautiously bullish. The metal’s ability to break and hold above the crucial moving averages will be pivotal in determining its near-term direction. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate adjustments and the broader economic indicators will continue to play a significant role in shaping market sentiment and silver prices.

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

XAG/USD is bumping up against the 50-day moving average at $23.13 on Thursday. This moving average is controlling the intermediate trend. Above this is the long-term trend indicator or 200-day moving average at $23.29.

Both moving averages have been providing resistance since January 3 so overcoming them could have a significant bullish influence with $23.55 the immediate upside target.

The inability to overcome the moving averages will signal the presence of strong sellers. This could lead to a retest of the major support at $22.23 to $21.88.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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