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Silver Prices Forecast: XAG/USD Steady Amid Middle East Crisis, Fed Decisions

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Oct 31, 2023, 07:03 GMT+00:00

Amid Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve's imminent policy decision, XAG/USD remains in a holding pattern poised for volatile move.

Silver Prices Forecast

Highlights

  • Silver prices affected by Middle East conflict and central bank meetings.
  • U.S. Treasury yields see fluctuation, influencing silver market.
  • Dollar’s strength caps gains in silver prices.

Silver Navigates Geopolitical Uncertainty and Central Bank Anticipation

As central bank meetings loom this week, silver (XAG/USD) prices have demonstrated both resilience and volatility. Earlier this month, the spot price climbed to $23.88 an ounce, propelled by geopolitical tensions following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, prices have plateaued as Israel moderates its approach to the situation, slightly diffusing investor fears.

Fed Meeting and Market Focus

The global investment community is focused on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and the monthly U.S. jobs report due Friday. With a 96% market expectation that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are seeking cues on the future trajectory of monetary policy.

U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators

U.S. Treasury yields are another influential factor. The 10-year Treasury yield recently touched 4.888%, contributing to elevated investor attention. After the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to borrow $776 billion in Q4, yields slightly retracted. This coincides with expectations set by JPMorgan Chase strategists, who had predicted a borrowing figure close to $800 billion.

Jobs Reports and the U.S. Dollar

Investors are also eyeing upcoming employment reports, including the ADP’s employment change figures and the September jobs report. These data points could potentially alter market sentiment. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar is holding steady, backed by a robust U.S. economy and the prospect of another Fed rate hike.

Short-Term Forecast: Cautiously Bullish

While uncertainty pervades, the market sentiment appears cautiously bullish for silver. Geopolitical factors and central bank decisions could induce fluctuations, but the underlying economic indicators suggest a degree of stability in the silver market. Higher yields and a strong dollar may put a cap on silver prices, but the current landscape suggests more resilience than vulnerability.

Technical Analysis

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

The current daily price of XAG/USD at 23.15 is positioned between its 200-day moving average of 23.29 and its 50-day moving average of 22.96, suggesting the market is in a neutral zone.

While it’s slightly below the 200-day MA, indicating mild bearish sentiment, it remains above the 50-day MA, offering a counter bullish signal.

The asset is currently facing minor resistance at 23.55 and major resistance at 24.50, with trend line resistance pegged at 24.13.

On the downside, minor and main support levels are at 22.23 and 20.66 respectively.

The data suggests that the market is in a wait-and-see mode, cautiously poised between key technical levels. Overall, market sentiment leans toward neutral with a slight bullish inclination.

This type of formation tends to fuel a volatile breakout.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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