Kenny Fisher
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Silver has recorded small losses in Friday trade. In the European session, the metal is trading at $16.87 down $0.13 or 0.77% on the day. Later in the day, the U.S. releases key retail sales reports.

Will Sides Reach ‘Phase 1’ Deal?

The wave of optimism that the U.S. and China were on the verge of a trade agreement has subsided, as investors are trying to decipher mixed messages from the ever-unpredictable Donald Trump. Trump fired off combative remarks in New York this week, aimed at China. The president threatened to escalate the trade war, saying that tariffs would be raised “very substantially” if the sides failed to reach an agreement. At the same time, Trump added that a “Phase 1” interim deal could “happen soon”, and his tough talk could be aimed at his electoral base in an election year. Last week, investor optimism soared on a Chinese report that the sides had agreed to phase out tariffs, and safe-haven silver was hit hard, falling 7.1 percent.

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Ahead – Stronger Retail Sales Expected

Investors are keeping an eye on October U.S. retail sales, which will be released later on Friday.  Retail sales are expected to improve to 0.1%, after a disappointing decline of -0.3% in September. The core release is projected to improve to 0.3%, up from -0.1%. A rebound in the upcoming releases could boost risk appetite and weigh on safe-haven silver.


Silver Technical Analysis

Silver remains range-bound and appears to have little appetite for a breakout. On the upside, we have resistance at 17.25. This is followed by resistance at 17.75. On the downside, there is support at 16.50. Note that the 200-EMA is at this level as well. This is followed by support at the round number of 16.00.

XAUUSD 1-Day Chart
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