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Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 -14, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 -14, 2012, Forecast

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 -14, 2012, Forecast
Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 -14, 2012, Forecast
Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver closed the week at 33.128 falling from the high of 33.905 on Monday. After positive data last week from China industrial metals soared in the early part of the week keeping silver strong. Precious metals also remained on the upside. By mid week traders started to look for more risk and eased off of precious metals.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 07, 2012

33.128

33.058

33.323

32.688

0.22%

Dec 06, 2012

33.055

32.888

33.328

32.610

0.49%

Dec 05, 2012

32.893

32.927

33.298

32.593

-0.11%

Dec 04, 2012

32.930

33.677

33.703

32.752

-2.24%

Dec 03, 2012

33.683

33.603

33.905

33.475

0.62%

As the UK revised its growth downward on Wednesday, the outlook for industrial metals turned negative, and was followed by a huge downturn after the ECB and the German downgrade of GDP for 2013. Although market sentiment was not as positive traders continued to add risk leaving precious metals trending down. As the week concluded precious metals remained in a sideways action with silver falling as lower demand for industrial metals weighed on the markets. Positive data in the US limited the decline but also saw a rise in the US dollar which makes trading dollar denominated commodities more expensive.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.50

50.40

50.40

 

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

4.1%

5.4%

 

CHF

SVME PMI 

48.5

47.0

46.1

 

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

45.10

45.90

45.50

 

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.5

44.7

44.7

 

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.8

46.8

46.8

 

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

46.2

46.2

46.2

 

GBP

Manufacturing PMI 

49.1

48.1

47.3

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.5

51.3

51.7

Dec. 04

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

74.30K

90.50K

128.20K

Dec. 05

GBP

Services PMI 

50.2

51.1

50.6

 

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

5.290%

 

5.517%

 

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.2%

-0.1%

-0.6%

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

118K

125K

157K

 

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.9%

2.7%

1.9%

 

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-1.9%

-0.9%

-0.1%

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

54.7

53.5

54.2

 Dec. 06

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

1.0%

0.2%

-0.1%

 

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.0%

0.1%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.5B

-8.8B

-8.4B

 

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

3.9%

0.9%

-2.4%

 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K

380K

395K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3205K

3275K

3305K

 Dec. 07

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.8%

0.7%

-2.1%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.3%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-3.0%

-0.6%

-3.2%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-2.6%

-0.5%

-1.3%

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

146K

93K

138K

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.4

34.4

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

147K

95K

189K

 

MXN

Mexican CPI (YoY) 

4.18%

4.34%

4.60%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.5

82.4

82.7

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.1%

 

0.1%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-7% 

-7% 

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-12.0 

-15.7 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.5B 

-41.6B 

 Dec. 12

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1% 

-0.1% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9% 

1.9% 

 

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

0.1% 

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.9% 

1.8% 

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

7.0K 

10.1K 

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-2.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5% 

0.5% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-147.5B 

-120.0B 

Dec. 13

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3% 

-0.1% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-16 

-21 

Dec. 14

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.0 

44.5 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.2 

46.8 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.2% 

2.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5% 

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