Silver (XAG) Forecast: $37.87 Breakdown Risks Plunge to 50-Day Moving Average

Silver Slides Toward 50-Day Average as Tariff Jitters Bite

Silver came under heavy pressure Monday, tracking the drop in gold after an early attempt to hold above $38 quickly gave way. Prices are now pressing the short-term pivot at $37.87, with the 50-day moving average at $37.10 sitting squarely in traders’ sights. This zone is acting as the line in the sand—either dip buyers show up here, or we could be staring at a deeper slide toward the $36.21 floor.

At 13:08 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $37.78, down $0.55 or -1.44%.

Tariff Clouds Keep Pressure on the Market

Like gold, silver’s weakness is tied to uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on bullion imports. The metal briefly spiked last week as traders digested talk of duties on kilo-sized bars, but momentum faded once the long-term implications sank in. Futures are now off more than 2%, as participants wait for the White House to issue an executive order spelling out the plan. That move could have a direct impact on global silver flows, especially if refined bar imports get caught up in the policy.

Eyes on U.S. CPI for Rate Clues

The next potential catalyst comes with Tuesday’s U.S. CPI data. Consensus sees a 0.3% monthly core rise, pushing the annual rate to 3%—still well above the Fed’s 2% target. A hot print could chip away at rate-cut bets, capping silver’s rebound attempts. A softer reading, on the other hand, might give the market the excuse it needs to push back above $38. Current pricing still shows nearly a 90% chance of a September cut, with another expected before year-end.

Geopolitics Temper Safe-Haven Flows

Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talk expectations and a likely extension to the U.S.-China tariff deadline have taken some urgency out of safe-haven buying. While silver is often tied to industrial demand as much as its monetary role, easing risk sentiment has kept buyers cautious for now.

Short-Term Forecast – Holding Below the Pivot

Silver is still wrestling with the $37.87 pivot, and with current trade at $37.76, the 50-day moving average at $37.10 hasn’t even entered the fight yet. For now, the market’s sitting in that no-man’s-land where buyers are probing to see if they can reclaim the pivot, while sellers are eyeing the path toward the 50-day as the next real test.

A clean push back above $37.87 would ease some immediate pressure and might encourage a quick run toward the high $38s. Fail to reclaim it, and the bias stays soft, with $37.10 becoming the magnet in the near term. Until one of those levels gives way, expect more back-and-forth as the market decides whether this is just a pullback or the start of something heavier.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.