US Dollar Forecast: DXY Rises Toward 200‑Day MA as ISM Services Beats Forecasts

Dollar Presses Resistance as Yields Pop on Services Strength

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is back on the front foot Wednesday, stretching up to 100.360 and tagging its highest level since early August. That puts it just shy of the 200-day moving average at 100.383 — a technical ceiling that’s now the key battleground for dollar direction.

At 15:33 GMT, DXY is trading 100.262, up 0.065 or +0.06%.

Rates Jump as Services Surprise to the Upside

The move is getting help from a sharp rise in yields. The 10-year is trading above 4.14% after ISM services for October came in at 52.4, stronger than the 50.5 expected. New orders jumped to 56.2, suggesting solid demand to start Q4.

Employment, however, remained weak at 48.2 — still in contraction for a fifth straight month. Markets looked past the softness, with front-end yields also ticking up. The 2-year is near 3.62%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may hold rates steady, but isn’t pivoting anytime soon.

Key Resistance in Play — Again

Price is pressing up against the 200-day moving average, which rejected buyers in late July. A confirmed break above it puts 101.977 in play — a key resistance level from the summer. But if the rally loses steam here, DXY risks a pullback to the 50% retracement of its recent run, down at 99.463. Traders are watching the daily close — and yields — for confirmation.

Shutdown Obscures the Data Picture

The longer this rally holds, the more it’s running on incomplete data. With the government shutdown stretching into a 36th day, official figures like Q3 GDP are still MIA. The CBO estimates the shutdown could shave 1–2 percentage points off Q4 growth, with $7 to $14 billion in permanent loss. So far, traders aren’t pricing in that drag — but the risk is out there if the shutdown drags deeper into November.

Tariff Watch Returns as Court Takes Up Trump Case

The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the 1977 emergency powers statute. A ruling against the administration could unwind a chunk of those duties, impacting trade flows and possibly inflation expectations. It’s not moving markets yet, but it’s worth keeping on the radar.

Bottom Line

The dollar’s got a solid backdrop: firm services demand, rising yields, and cautious Fed expectations. But the chart’s at a tipping point. A break above the 200-day clears the path to 101.97. Failure here could pull DXY back toward 99.46 — especially if rate support fades or shutdown fallout starts to bite. Fundamentals support the trend, but the technicals need to seal the deal.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.