Silver (XAG) Forecast: 50-Day MA Support in Play as NFP Data Looms Large

Silver Holds Key Support as Traders Brace for Jobs Data and Dollar Moves

Silver prices are clinging to the 50-day moving average at $36.50 as the market awaits Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report and reacts to persistent dollar strength. The metal is on its third straight session of losses, tracking gold lower while holding above the critical July 7 low at $36.16.

At 11:27 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $36.49, down $0.22 or -0.61%.

Dollar Index Surge Pressures Precious Metals

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged to its highest since late May, reinforcing pressure on dollar-denominated assets like silver and gold. This strength, fueled by robust U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, has capped any meaningful upside in metals. The Fed left rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% this week but offered no signal for a September rate cut, dashing hopes for policy easing in the near term.

This hawkish tone has been backed by stronger-than-expected GDP, jobless claims, and PCE inflation figures—tightening the lid on silver’s recent bull run. Without a downside surprise in Friday’s NFP report, traders see limited immediate upside in metals.

Gold Struggles Below Resistance, Spills Over to Silver

Gold’s own struggles have spilled over to silver, with bullion capping upside attempts below resistance at $3310.48 and the 50-day moving average at $3341.40. Gold remains locked in a short-term bearish setup, though its long-term trend is still bullish above the 200-day SMA at $3006.04. Silver often follows gold’s lead, and as long as gold remains capped, silver rallies are likely to remain shallow and short-lived.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Only Modest Support

Trade headlines provided a minor lift to safe-haven demand. Former President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Brazil, India, Canada, and Taiwan have introduced some uncertainty into global trade expectations, which could eventually lend support to metals. However, the near-term price action remains dictated by rate expectations and dollar movement.

Silver Forecast: Rangebound with Downside Risk if Support Breaks

Technically, silver is vulnerable to a drop toward $36.16, followed by $35.28, if the 50-day SMA fails to hold. A close below $36.16 would break the July support zone and invite heavier selling.

On the upside, reclaiming $36.50 could trigger short covering with $37.87—the pivot from the $39.53 to $36.21 range—acting as a first target.

Friday’s NFP data holds the key to the next move. A strong report may drive the dollar higher and pressure silver below key support, while a miss could give bulls a shot at reclaiming $37+. For now, the short-term bias remains defensive below $36.50.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.