Silver (XAG) Forecast: Cautious Outlook as White House Trade News Fuels Uncertainty

Silver Ends Higher on Week as Fed and Trade Developments Take the Spotlight

Silver finished last week with modest gains, buoyed by stronger gold prices and growing anticipation of supportive monetary policy. Yet, despite holding above long-term moving average support, the metal continues to lag gold and shows limited investment appeal. Traders are looking to key macro events this week—including inflation data, retail sales, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech—for the next directional cue.

Last week, XAG/USD settled at $32.73, up $0.72 or +2.23%.

Technically, the market is supported by the 52-week moving average at $30.91. This indicator is controlling the long-term direction of the precious metal. However, there are headwinds at $34.59 to $34.87 and the major resistance at $35.40.

Breaking News: U.S.-China Trade Deal Announced

A weekend announcement from the White House confirmed that the U.S. and China had reached a “trade deal,” though officials offered few details. Negotiations in Geneva were described as “productive” by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested a more complete briefing would follow Monday. Any tariff de-escalation would be constructive for silver, which derives more than half of its demand from industrial uses such as electronics and solar manufacturing. Traders will be looking for signs that the deal includes measures that could improve industrial trade flows.

Fed in Focus as Markets Await Powell’s Guidance

With interest rates held steady in the May meeting, market attention now turns to upcoming U.S. CPI and retail sales data, along with Powell’s Thursday speech. While Powell reiterated a “wait-and-see” stance, traders are hoping for clarity on the path to rate cuts. Current market pricing implies 75 basis points of easing this year. Any hint of a dovish tilt could lower real yields and benefit non-yielding assets like silver.

Dollar Strength and Weak Investment Flows Persist

Despite silver’s weekly advance, broader investor appetite remains weak. The U.S. dollar climbed to 100.21 last week, supported by solid jobless claims and resilient retail sales data. Rising Treasury yields are further supporting the greenback. These factors reduce the appeal of silver for foreign buyers and institutional investors. Unlike gold, which continues to attract safe-haven interest on geopolitical concerns, silver has yet to see meaningful ETF inflows or central bank interest.

Outlook: Modest Bullish Potential Hinges on Trade and Fed

Silver’s ability to close higher for the week shows some resilience, but the metal remains dependent on external catalysts. A credible breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations could support industrial demand, while any dovish signals from Powell would improve the investment case. Until then, silver is likely to track gold while remaining a secondary play, especially with the gold-silver ratio holding elevated. Traders should stay focused on this week’s economic data and follow-up details from the trade deal for clearer direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.