Silver (XAG) Forecast: Four-Day Range Sets Stage for Breakout on Warsh, NFP

Silver Tested the December Breakout Level for Four Days and Has Not Broken It

Spot Silver settled at $58.59 Tuesday, up 48 cents on the session after trading as high as $60.44. The market has been testing $59.34 for four straight sessions. That level launched the speculative rally on December 9 and the fact that silver is sitting right on it again tells you where the market thinks fair value is until something changes the rate picture.

Tuesday’s range from the low to $60.44 looked like it had a chance to reclaim the halfway point of the all-time high at $60.835. It did not. The session stalled right at resistance and settled back below it. Four days of sideways price action pressing against the same two levels is compression that has to resolve. Wednesday and Thursday provide the catalysts.

The dollar stayed firm on expectations for higher rates and that capped every attempt to push through resistance. Silver traded to $60.44 and came back. The industrial buyers gave it a floor. The rate trade gave it a ceiling. The result was a 48-cent gain that went nowhere meaningful.

Warsh Wednesday and Payrolls Thursday Break the Stalematexag

Four sessions of compression and the catalysts arrive back to back. Warsh at the ECB Forum Wednesday. Payrolls Thursday morning into a holiday book.

A more cautious Warsh pulls rate hike bets lower and the dollar eases. That is what silver needs to push through the ceiling at the halfway point of the all-time high. The market has been pressing against that resistance all week without the macro support to break it. Wednesday could provide it.

If Warsh reinforces the hawkish message from June, the dollar firms and silver stays pinned below resistance. A strong payrolls print Thursday morning on top of a hawkish speech Wednesday and the four-day support at $59.34 stops holding.

Thursday’s session closes early for the holiday. The reaction to payrolls gets compressed into a few hours with thinning liquidity. Whatever direction the number produces, the move is going to be sharper than normal and there is no Friday session to adjust. Traders carry Thursday’s position into a three-day weekend.

The Long-Term Value Zone Is Being Tested Right Now

Silver hit $121.67 on January 29. It is now sitting inside a long-term retracement zone at $59.34 to $46.48. That is a pullback to the 50% to 61.8% area of the all-time high. For long-term investors who believe in the supply deficit and the industrial demand growth story, this is the zone where that conviction gets tested with real money.

The December 9 breakout level at $59.34 held for four sessions. Buyers have been showing up at that price. Whether they are long-term investors building positions or short-term traders looking for a bounce is something the next two sessions will answer. A dovish Warsh and a soft payrolls number gives the long-term bulls the macro cover they need to add size. A hawkish Warsh and a hot print leaves the value zone exposed to a deeper test toward $46.48.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Spot silver traded sideways for a fourth straight session on Tuesday. Traders have spent most of that time testing $59.34, which by my calculations is the trigger point that launched the speculative rally on December 9, 2025. Resistance is also being generated by $60.835, which is 50% of the all-time high.

The short-term range is $71.56 to $55.60. Its 50% level at $63.58 is the next upside target. Upside momentum can build over this pivot with the 200-day moving average the first target at $69.58, followed by the 50-day moving average at $72.25.

On the downside, a failure to hold last week’s low at $55.60 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major support cluster $46.48 to $45.55.

Silver is currently testing the upper end of a major long-term support zone at $59.34 to $46.48. This is a value zone for long-term investors. After seeing silver hit $121.67 on January 29, some investors may view this pullback to 50% – 61.8% of this record high as a gift.

If long-term bulls don’t return on a test of this zone then they aren’t what I thought they were. They are just short-term speculators like the rest of us and all those X.com posts about silver shortages and $300 silver are just stories they tell to get clicks and likes. Seriously. This formation is currently asking the long-term investors, if you couldn’t get it a $0.00 and you didn’t like it at $121.67, then you must want it at $60.835 to $46.48. If you don’t want it there then you aren’t investing, you are speculating.

What to Watch

Warsh speaks Wednesday and the payrolls report hits Thursday morning before the holiday closes the desks. Silver has been trading sideways for four sessions testing the same two levels. The compression breaks on those two events.

Steady buying from electronics and data infrastructure manufacturers has kept silver from falling through the December breakout level. That demand is real but it is not strong enough to overcome the rate trade on its own.

The dollar and rate expectations have to cooperate before the halfway point of the all-time high gives way. If both events this week ease the hike pressure, the path opens to the next pivot with the moving averages above that. If both reinforce the hawkish stance, the December breakout level that has held for four days stops holding and the deeper part of the long-term value zone comes into play.

The market is asking long-term buyers whether they want silver at these levels. The next 48 hours determines whether they get the macro backdrop to act on it.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.