Silver (XAG) Forecast: Lower Dollar Lifts Silver Market as Gold Holds Steady

Silver Steadies as Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Trump Tariffs Shadow Dollar

Silver is holding firm while buyers defend the short-term pivot at $36.30 for a fourth straight session, tracking gains in gold as the dollar eases on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

The combination of Trump’s tariff escalations and softer U.S. yields is building a supportive backdrop for silver, even as the market awaits a clearer catalyst for a breakout.

At 12:27 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $36.64, up $0.26 or +0.71%.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Back Bullion

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting indicate that most officials see rate cuts likely this year, even though rates were held steady last month. This has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.342% and the 2-year to 3.853%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and gold.

This environment supports continued bids in silver, especially if inflation indicators soften alongside hiring data, aligning with traders’ expectations for a policy pivot later in the year.

Trump Tariffs Stir Fresh Inflation Concerns

President Trump’s aggressive tariff moves, including 50% levies on copper imports and goods from Brazil effective August 1, have kept inflation fears alive.

While broader equities remain resilient, traders are weighing the risk of renewed supply-driven inflation if energy markets tighten.

For silver, this supports a potential upside scenario if inflation concerns feed into higher metals bids, especially with copper facing tariff disruptions that may ripple into industrial demand narratives for silver.

Dollar Weakness Supports Silver Bid Zones

The dollar index has eased 0.2% as IMF data shows its global reserves share slipping to 57.7%, reflecting capital rotation into currencies like the euro and Swiss franc.

This dollar softness helps silver by lowering its cost for non-dollar buyers, keeping the market supported near $36.30 while positioning for a move higher if the dollar continues to weaken with dovish Fed commentary.

Silver Price Outlook: Rangebound, Waiting for a Catalyst

Traders are currently eyeing the $36.30 pivot for near-term support, with upside targets in the $37.32 zone, aligning with gold’s pivot resistance clusters.

A confirmed move above $37.32 could trigger stops and encourage momentum buying toward higher local highs, while a break below $36.30 would open room for a test of $35.40-$34.87, with the 50-day moving average at $34.80 presenting a potential buying opportunity on the first test.

For now, silver is expected to remain in a consolidation grind, with directional clarity hinging on the Fed’s next signals and tariff-related inflation developments.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.